2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

No but there may be a Great Point. Or about 8 of them.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

[SniperSB23]

Worth noting that Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 10 so Adriano would actually have to do more than Barbaro did to win from 12. Of course scratches could alter things considerably with two questionable Zayat horses in the field.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

In my opinion he is likely to be the most overbet horse in the race.
Betting a colt with a sprinter's pedigree stretching out to 9f and stepping way up in class after an off-the-pace score going 8f is not usually a smart move as far as I am concerned.
Perhaps he is really just that good and wins, but as far as betting goes, I am looking elsewhere.

[cakes44]

I'm not really an angle handicapper, but that $.19 ROI on 2nd starters for Reade Baker is something else. I don't remember seeing a number that low in a graded race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

Having a decent post, as well, makes him more playable than some others. I guess in a race that looks pretty wide open, ya gotta take a stand with one of them--- I'm going with KB. Good luck!

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Having a decent post, as well, makes him more playable than some others. I guess in a race that looks pretty wide open, ya gotta take a stand with one of them--- I'm going with KB. Good luck!

The Bear looks as good as any of them. BTW asked the question too much too soon ? We'll find out the answer soon.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

Now you're gettin' it!