2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

[blackthroatedwind]

Apparantly Adriano has some hidden race that only the poster Indian Charlie has seen. Apparently he possesses some sort of ability that doesn't show in his pps. Surely none of his races last year were anything to write home about. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular, and probably worse than just about any race the rest of the field has run. And, then there's his race this year, where he sat a perfect trip behind a pace that collapsed so badly that a horse as bad as the second finisher, Ablazewithspirit, was even able to give the appearance of being decent. In case, like Indian Charlie, you're not familiar with Ablazewithspirit, he broke his maiden on the turf in a $40K maiden claimer in his previous start. The third finisher, who also benefited from the collapsing pace, lost to Celestial Comet by a like amount in his next start. I suppose I should call Bruce Lunsford and tell him to put that one on the TC trail as well.

So, all Adriano has to do to win this race is.....overcome post 12 and improve dramatically on the dirt. At 100-1 I'm not even sure he's a good bet.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

yeah, think what you like man. i can take some heat for sticking my neck out.

if i'm wrong, so be it. but when i have a pretty strong opinion about horses like that, they usually do okay. perhaps tomorrow isnt his day due to the post he drew, but i see this as a horse with much more upside than anyone else in this race.

it would be nice to see him duplicate his last performance, sure, but that's part of the fun of this sport for me, seeing horses that have greater ability early in their career than most people give them credit for.

i'm just glad i was not around back in 05, when i thought barbaro was going to win the derby off his debut turf win. i probably would have been ridiculed to death.

is that a redboard?

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

A lot of people liked Barbaro long before he hit the dirt. This horse aint Barbaro.

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

obviously.

however, there aren't exactly any bernardinis in this field either.

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

No but there may be a Great Point. Or about 8 of them.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

[SniperSB23]

Worth noting that Barbaro won the Florida Derby from post 10 so Adriano would actually have to do more than Barbaro did to win from 12. Of course scratches could alter things considerably with two questionable Zayat horses in the field.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're not wrong that nobody here jumps off the page but it is actually a deeper field than we usually get and enough possibly OK horses that we probably won't see an undeserving winner per se. These horses are all so lightly raced that it's hard to have a true handle on anybody.

I think Kentucky Bear is the most talented horse in the race, which you mentioned, but I also worry about this being too much too soon. But, it's not like any of them are that experienced.

I really like Kentucky Bear but I'm worried about the distance in addition to too much too soon. He's not exactly screaming distance pedigree. I hope he wins since I think he has the most upside here and we need some more really good horses to come out of this crop but I'm not sure if he is a good play.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i'm going to change my pick in here! i like zito.

Now you're gettin' it!