The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[blackthroatedwind]

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses. I know you won't argue that War Pass was far more impressive in victory in those races than Pyro was in picking up the pieces for second money.

As for the rest of your Captain Obvious stuff about Pyro being more likely to get the distance. Gee thanks....we didn't know that War Pass isn't particularly bred to go a distance and faces the possibility of a difficult pace scenerio in the Derby. And, in case we weren't, you have already posted it about 37 times. Clearly the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate may be his biggest concern ( along with the obvious distance questions ). One thing Smarty Jones had going for him at this time four years ago was that he had shown a stalking ability. Of course, it would be nice for War Pass if the sky opened up on the first Saturday in May just like they did for Smarty Jones.

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style. Hopefully someone will straighten him out before it's too late. I just hope for Assmussen's sake his horses are running as well on Derby day as they seem to be in Fair Grounds right now. I'm sure you'll agree that there's no reason to even consider that possibility.

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.