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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.
This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.
In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.
The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.
--Dunbar
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Odds Comparison with Churchills Future Pool final closing odds and Wynn Las Vegas Future Book. Which would you rather bet into?
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2008 Kentucky Derby Future
# Horse CD ML CD Fin Wynn Current Best Odds
1 Anak Nakal 20-1 33-1 50-1 Wynn
2 Blackberry Road 20-1 47-1 50-1 Wynn
3 Bob Black Jack 50-1 58-1 200-1 Wynn
4 Colonel John 30-1 19-1 25-1 Wynn
5 Court Vision 12-1 15-1 25-1 Wynn
6 Cowboy Cal 20-1 26-1 50-1 Wynn
7 Crown of Thorns 20-1 18-1 20-1 Wynn
8 Denis of Cork 30-1 46-1 50-1 Wynn
9 El Gato Malo 15-1 16-1 15-1 CD
10 Etched 15-1 26-1 50-1 Wynn
11 Georgie Boy 20-1 69-1 50-1 CD
12 Giant Moon 20-1 51-1 65-1 Wynn
13 Into Mischief 20-1 26-1 50-1 Wynn
14 Majestic Warrior15-1 18-1 25-1 Wynn
15 Monba 30-1 16-1 25-1 Wynn
16 Pyro 12-1 5-1 8-1 Wynn
17 Signature Move 50-1 152-1 100-1 CD
18 Smooth Air 20-1 159-1 75-1 CD
19 Tale of Ekati 20-1 33-1 30-1 CD
20 War Pass 12-1 6-1 12-1 Wynn
21 Yankee Bravo 20-1 48-1 125-1 Wynn
22 Z Fortune 20-1 37-1 30-1 CD
23 Z Humor 15-1 45-1 60-1 Wynn
24 Mutuel Field 5-2 3-1 N/A CD
A couple of other advantages to betting into Las Vegas style future books is that you get the price that you buy into. It's a true future book. With the Churchill future the pool, you don't know the exact odds you are getting until the pool closes. Obviously this can work both ways depending on the horse you're wagering on. Another advantage is that if you really like a horse or 2 that are part of the Churchill mutuel field, you will get longshot odds when betting into the Las Vegas style future books, as opposed to 3/1 . Now of course you could still win the wager if another field horse wins, but 3/1 is not what I'm looking for when making future wagers. 3/1 on the mutuel field may be an attractive wager if you don't like any of the named entrants however.
One other thing to keep in mind. The Wynn odds are not the only future odds available in Las Vegas. You have the option of shopping around. However, Wynn oddsmaker John Avello does a great job at managing the odds. Many shops will simply lower the odds as wagers come in, but will not increase the odds on those entries that are not taking any action. Avello will adjust the odds up or down according to the action coming in. Buyer beware. It pays to shop around. In summary, I guess it really depends on which horse you're interested in. As a whole, the Wynn future books offers more attractive odds on more entrants, and locks you into the price you buy at. The Churchill pools offers a Mutuel field, allowing you to wager against the named entrants. Also you are not limited in the amount you want to wager, but your wager does affect the odds you get.
02-08-2008, 09:21 AM
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