Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

It's hard to take a stand against Asmussen down there.

Same goes for Amoss and Autrey. Seems like those guys could cure cancer if they were doctors.

[Bobby Fischer]

quote dahoss :
"Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?"
This isn't a smartass answer even though you may think it is , but put 2 and 2 together. I didn't mention the horse you mentioned, and I plan to make money on that horse when he loses his first race.

quote dahoss:"I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick."
Not so much that a siphon will fold (although in general they are kind of mediocre turf sprinters or cheap route speed/mudders) , but that a horse who is moved up by a trainer usually folds at the higher classes. Zfortune is a good Siphon. He cost 4x his sire avg. He was the top siphon price @ 80k. With that Asmussen bridle and the heavily muscled frame he almost looks like a gray Curlin. And right now Asmussen has Zfortune looking like a superhorse. He hasn't shown any weakness yet. Maybe later in the prep season when he goes 9 furlongs, we get to look for signs of stress or weakness. Not convinced that he can rate and win at 10 furlongs, but hasn't shown a weakness yet. He has a good chance of winning the Risen Star.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Visionaire runs this weekend as well. Depending on how he looksm "Field" could be really good. If he runs a huge race or something, that is like getting one of the favorites and all others...

Visionaire is available on Bodog at 70-1..... Just put down 25 on him

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

The more people that disagree the more likely you are to be right.

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

Not that his race on the inner at Aqueduct means much but that just happened to be a perfect trip as well (free and clear through slow fractions on speed-favoring track).

I imagine he'll be exposed this week and is probably not even the best Z pointing to the Derby.

As far as Albany future odds, you just wait to see The Truffle Man go tomorrow, he will vault to the head of the class. I'm gonna see if TheGreek still has him at 40-1.

NT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Considering that this horse has not yet won a stakes race, I think you might be a bit ahead of yourself here.

[Bobby Fischer]

Grasshopper isn't as good as the public thinks he was vs. SS.
Grasshopper also didn't run as poorly as the public thinks in the Super Derby.

He is a nice horse. He hasn't shown that he is some kind of division leader at all yet, but hey he should be a little stronger this year.
I don't expect him to win the Mineshaft, but he has a shot.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

No kidding. This could also go down as one of BBBs most quotables.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Have you ever been right before a race?

[Dunbar]

Here's a link to live odds for Future Pool 1:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/future-wager/odds

Our enlightened racing brethren have already put down a couple thousand dollars on Pyro, making him the 2nd fav among individual interests. I guess they couldn't wait 2 days to see how he does on Saturday.

--Dunbar

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here's a link to live odds for Future Pool 1:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/future-wager/odds

Our enlightened racing brethren have already put down a couple thousand dollars on Pyro, making him the 2nd fav among individual interests. I guess they couldn't wait 2 days to see how he does on Saturday.

--Dunbar

Derby fever I guess. I'm not big into the future bets anyway, but why not wait until he at least runs? Or better yet, on Sunday when it's much closer to the final odds. And I see War Pass is 3-1?(it's early, I know) Crazy, he'll probably be at least that on derby day (assuming he makes it there.)


As the Wallace Shawn character (a black jack dealer) said in the Vegas Vacation movie (paraphrasing here), " why don't we just go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, take half your money and we'll call it a day?"

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Not too shabby...


Bordeaux Bandit


Date: 02/07/2008
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/16

[SlewsMyHero]

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

[Kasept]

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2