Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

I don't know, it is a free $25 and I have to play it, I think he will at least get there...

If you had to play $25 on the wager, one bet, who would you do? I'll consider it, and give you a 10% royalty if it happens, and don't give me no 4/1 shot.....

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

There is no doubt that he was not overwhelmingly fast as a 2yo, and would need to improve quite a bit to win a G1 Classic, but they all do at this point.
It just seems like a big crapshoot to me right now.
You are absolutely right about him having a very good trip at CD, but Blackberry Road's was pretty good too, and that one saved a lot of ground compared to Anak Nakal who was 4-wide around the second turn.
His pedigree also points to a colt that could certainly improve with both age and added distance. His connections also seem pretty high on him and since he already has the earnings to get in, they can chart whatever course they choose.
I am not going to place a future wager on him, b/c the price probably won't be right, but if I had a free $25 wager like Scav, I think he would probably be the way I would go.
I think the other interesting horse in this futures process might actually be War Pass. His pedigree and running style sure don't look like a Derby winner, but if enough people feel this way - or if they just fall in love with whomever wins this Saturday - might it actually be possible to get a halfway decent price on seemingly the most talented animal in the crop?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

That 97 BSF was, I believe, the highest figure for a 2 yo going 2 turns on a fast track.

I like him a lot too. Heard he's no go for the FG race.

[tiznowthegreat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

I thought it was flat out comical they excluded Check It Twice. He was going to be my only play this weekend and for him not to be included is a joke with his credentials.