Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT

thanks ! good info. They seem to be a pretty good fit.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

Churchill Downs has given me a free $25 future wager so I'll probably play Anak Nakal, he should at least get there, and has the talent so what the hell, probably be decent odds since he isn't racing this weekend and people will forget about him after they unload on the winners of this weekend

He is my top choice right now too, although I agree with the others that it seems very probable (more probable than in years past) that the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby is not on this list.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway)

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

My wallet hopes you're right.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

Did they ask him?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by justindew

No Barrier Reef (not nominated, but I am alomst positive CD has included non-nominees before).

No Check It Twice (Stakes winner at 2, under Pletcher's care, gets JV this weekend at FG).

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Check it Twice should be on the list.

Todd sounded more likely to go to dirt with Cowboy Cal a month or so ago when his only major dirt colt was Monba. Now that he has a couple moe to deal with he is less likely to use CC on dirt. Thus CC doesn't look like a great choice either. As for Georgie Boy, do the selectors not follow the maiden and allowance programs at GP/FG/SA at all? That's the best they could come up with?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Check it Twice is nominated.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Linny

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Why?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did they ask him?

Saw it on his facebook page..

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Saw it on his facebook page..

Me too!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

That 97 BSF was, I believe, the highest figure for a 2 yo going 2 turns on a fast track.

I like him a lot too. Heard he's no go for the FG race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did they ask him?

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

[tiznowthegreat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

I thought it was flat out comical they excluded Check It Twice. He was going to be my only play this weekend and for him not to be included is a joke with his credentials.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

There's always way too much hype for the " they won at Churchill " horses. However, it's a better year than most to be unproven and on the cusp of being slow. I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

I'm confused by Check it Twice. His races prior to his last were OK but nothing special and considering what we've seen from Coal Play in his last two I'm really not sure what to make of the race. Maybe Check It Twice exists in a bubble, but to me there is more contrary evidence to him than positive. However, I agree with you that Pletcher rates to move him up.....but for how long? However, at least he has one possibly fast race, which is more than you can say for most 3YOs getting hype these days.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Is American County the Roman's that came back and won the Sunshine Millions sprint?

Yes

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think those who wanted to play Check It Twice this time will be happy come May 3rd when they aren't ripping up a losing pool 1 future ticket.

Only one horse will win - lots of future tickets will be torn. And it still is a comical error to not include a horse in the field who could easily take more money than half of the horses in the lineup.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

From watching his three races, he makes Great Point look like a fine talent...and Andromeda's Hero look like a superstar.

If he can only toss a figure in the Mid 80's with a great trip - and is getting a lot of hype for it - I'll pass.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Especially since Coal Play has come back to run 2 awful races.

I know - but he was loose in a route that day - and outsprinted in his two GP duds.

The number that day at CRC really was solid - there were a lot of routes.