GP: Important Weekday ALW Monday..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

How is Titan of Industry the 5:2 morning line choice in that race? That's just incompetent

The ML at Gulfstream has been absolutely dreadful on a day to day basis. I just don't understand it.

[Bobby Fischer]

I've gone over the form for this race, but I haven't reviewed the replays yet. My eyes need a rest.

On paper I could care less what Alaazo's debut speed figure is. I don't necessarily love precocious 2yo at the 9 furlong distance the following year anyway, so I am forgiving, but hopefully he showed a little talent or potential? At least he won the race and beat 8 monmouth maidens. Not a huge credit, but it isn't exactly a negative. I want to see the replay and see what he looks like. He is bred well and comes from a fairly hot barn.

I look at Aquarian's paper form and he looks solid. In his last 4 races he has had rallying jockeys, and now "today" he gets Velasquez, who I really like at 9 furlongs. His works hint that he has some tactical speed. Another I have to see in the replays, but don't expect to oppose.

Titan Of Industry ran well in his first two races and then held his own in some tough stakes. Nobody was beating Cowboy Cal, but TOI sure didn't embarass himself among the "rest" category. We go 9 furlongs here and Prado has caught my eye a few times, probably won't let TOI fall behind too far. Contender.

Mambo Meister has speed, and he will want the track to continue to move them along as it has been lately. loses the kamikaze jockey Nunez, but figures to be forwardly placed on the stretch out.

further on the fringe is Extreme frolic. has shown some positive signs. One of those "between the lines" horses on paper form his follow up race to his maiden was probably his best dirt race, and his last (turf) may have been a decent "prep" for this. Johnny V. may need to hustle him up on the backstretch to have any chance at a minor purse should the track play to speed.

I don't like Shatuck's paper form, but his breeding and barn warrants a replay review as well.

[Bobby Fischer]

caught Alaazo's replay. He could be very very good, hard to tell. I would like to know more about the the layoff. Poor start blew the first turn, he made headway like he was so much the best, looked like a nice good sized horse, looked nice in the stretch. He has talent and potential based on the replay. Understand the layoff is key.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

caught Alaazo's replay. He could be very very good, hard to tell. I would like to know more about the the layoff. Poor start blew the first turn, he made headway like he was so much the best, looked like a nice good sized horse, looked nice in the stretch. He has talent and potential based on the replay. Understand the layoff is key.

The highlighted part is completely untrue. Anybody that doesn't believe me should watch the race for themselves. He broke just fine.....but dropped back because he has no speed. He did blow the turn and cost himself a couple of lengths of position. From there he had a perfect trip and beat a cheap claimer in a slow race.

Just remember........there are no trips in slow races.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The highlighted part is completely untrue. Anybody that doesn't believe me should watch the race for themselves. He broke just fine.....but dropped back because he has no speed. He did blow the turn and cost himself a couple of lengths of position. From there he had a perfect trip and beat a cheap claimer in a slow race.

Just remember........there are no trips in slow races.

I agree about the "poor start," there was no such thing.

When looking at the rest of the charts from that day it is quite clear that race was embarassingly slow. I'm sure there was no need to reiterate it, but it is true.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

You guys are correct on this "poor start", but I think I didn't use the right choice of words. When I say "poor start" here, I am saying the same thing. He did not show speed, and I didn't mean to imply that he hit the gate or stumbled or any such reason(excuse?) for a slow break. For whatever reason, he didn't show speed, and going into the first turn he had no position. He was then caught wide and either last or near the back on the first turn.
I can see on the replay that once Alaazo starts making headway and how easily he does it, and the manner in which he does it, that he is by far much the best in that race. And Separate from the race he shows that there is a potential that he is a very good horse as an individual. Whenever you see a horse make headway like that and finish like that, and appear to look as good an animal as that - you have to take note. A Monmouth replay isn't exactly the easiest thing in the world to see, and the race could have been filled with terrible horses... That doesn't tell you a whole lot. All I know is that there is some potential for a special horse. And then we have this layoff for five months... No public specified reason to my knowledge (and google). The horse could be better or worse from whatever he did or did not show 5 months ago...

[Bobby Fischer]

Back to this race. -

Aquarian- with the rail, the short run-up, and Cornelio Velasquez - expect to see this horse break alertly and hustled up to position just behind the 2 or 3 speeds. If such position is established, Aquarian has an excellent chance to get into winning position around the 2nd turn and entering the stretch.

Alaazo- Desormeaux will also have to hustle this one out of the gate. The 10 seconds they have to get to turn 1 means that he absolutely must establish position, but it also means that should he establish position ,that he won't get left in the dust. If he has that much talent, he will get his chance to show it. Around turn-2, he will will get a chance to try to come on even terms with Aquarian. His first quarter position, his ability, Aquarian, the track will all play a role.

Mambo Meister has an outside shot to contend for the win. Castellano has to establish that forwardly placed position before they hit the first turn. Will JJ have a little more left than Nunez? Don't expect a clear lead.-Atwell may actually lead early but is not going to last 8 furlongs.

No one else has a chance to win the race. place show and 4th is another story

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The highlighted part is completely untrue. Anybody that doesn't believe me should watch the race for themselves. He broke just fine.....but dropped back because he has no speed. He did blow the turn and cost himself a couple of lengths of position. From there he had a perfect trip and beat a cheap claimer in a slow race.

Just remember........there are no trips in slow races.

Fischer really needs to hone his trip handicapping skills (among other things). And when you quote him, I'm left to read his amateurish assessment of races.

This horse was PUSHED on the backstretch to get into contention in POODLE fractions, and then was all out, under steady whipping to get by the leader in the stretch. Why in the world would anyone want him back; and at a short price too? But understanding the layoff is the key. Uh huh.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Fischer really needs to hone his trip handicapping skills (among other things). And when you quote him, I'm left to read his amateurish assessment of races.

This horse was PUSHED on the backstretch to get into contention in POODLE fractions, and then was all out, under steady whipping to get by the leader in the stretch. Why in the world would anyone want him back; and at a short price too? But understanding the layoff is the key. Uh huh.

The Fat Man is one of the best trip handicapper's I have spoken with. For whatever reason he is anti-social. He really is close to genius with his trip handicapping. Believe it or not we used to communicate in a civil manner.

Originally Posted by BF

BF: "Hey Fat Man

Hope all is well with you.
Derby is here.

Do you have any opinions on the draw and various contenders?

My main win contenders are Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin. ..."

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

"TFM: it's almost as comical over there as it is on PA. ******* has a new thread pointing out that the Beyer for *********** is inflated and he got a biased trip. NO ****. Like I ever thought this horse is much. I cashed at 2:1 in the ****** and went on my way.
And ********** is bitching about the fact that ********* didn't try for the lead. I watched *******'s 3 previous races: he's a dead DRAFTER. He drafted bigtime against *****, didn't pick up his feet against NoCount and.."
"

We actually exchanged daily notes, many emails, pps, charts, velocity, but our "friendship" ended when I was unwilling to trade bris PPs for fat-charts for a week while family was in town.

Now that means I am on permanent "ignore" and am a lousy judge of races...

Whatever Fat Man. It isn't that serious. Horseplaying is an individual game. The nature of the beast says that you have to have an ego, and you have to to be an individualist. (other than pooling for carryovers or high-fives...) I never altered a bet for a Fat Man opinion, and he sure as hell didn't for one of mine. I respect your talent but life is too short to get crabby over something "trivial"...