Would you play away from Nakatani's Horses

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by docicu3

As far as angles go I am curious about the feeling the jury here has about a recently injured jock and whether you would steer clear of sub jocks on C Nak's mounts for the next few days...

As many of you here know C Nak was injured breaking a clavicle during a spill early Saturday AM that will keep him from honoring his mounts for some period of time to be determined.

Obviously a superior horse would have to be taken into account but where do you draw this line??? Not that C Nak was tearing it up of late....

Been drawing a line thru most of his mounts because they have not been fast enought to win.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Been drawing a line thru most of his mounts because they have not been fast enought to win.

I've been drawing a line through his mounts because his head aint in the ballgame 90% of the time.

[docicu3]

Given that CN gets quite abit of favorable press and comment I am surprised how far he has fallen from favor here.....so lets amend this to CN is riding a horse that looks otherwise playable for price expected and or part of a tri or super your putting together.....given the limited time a replacement jock would have with his mount are you still crossing out or are there horses you would actually include because the jock replacing him is an upgrade.....

[GPK]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

IMO getting away from a mount because a guy like Nakatani is on is a mistake. The horse is what I bet. Obviously a huge upgrade is noted in my handicapping, but has little to no impact on my wagers and it shouldn't.

Im the opposite....and it goes for both Vertical and Horizontal bets. Vertically,(Exacta's only. I don't play tri's or supers) im more likely to leave him out, especially on short priced horses. I have seen him quit too many times to have a ton of confidence in him. Horizontally, I am more apt to use him, but rarely will I single. I realize this is based only on personal experience...but it's my two cents worth.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

IMO getting away from a mount because a guy like Nakatani is on is a mistake. The horse is what I bet. Obviously a huge upgrade is noted in my handicapping, but has little to no impact on my wagers and it shouldn't.

It is all about the horse. Who knows you might get a guy replacing Nak riding for a trainer for the first time. You would think the jock would do anything he could to start riding for Oneill or Dollasce etc. Plus I also think that you might get better odds on the horse if say Matt Garcia was on instead of Nak. I think BTW says it all the time, the jock is not as important as alot of people make them out to be.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

It is all about the horse. Who knows you might get a guy replacing Nak riding for a trainer for the first time. You would think the jock would do anything he could to start riding for Oneill or Dollasce etc. Plus I also think that you might get better odds on the horse if say Matt Garcia was on instead of Nak. I think BTW says it all the time, the jock is not as important as alot of people make them out to be.

I disagree with "the jock is not important"....while it is certainly true that a good jock cannot make a bad horse perform any better than it's talent will allow....but a solid jock replacing a less skilled one on a solid horse may make the difference between 1st, 2nd or 3rd.....Garcia today had a horse predicted to be competitive ES in the 8th at the Big A....Cotto didn't take or didn't have the advantage of GoGo Shoot's ES shown again today 12/12/07 (8).

Garcia stayed clear of Ramon and Maragh, the other jocks busy eliminating two other contenders in the race one by check the other by foul in the top of the stretch and the ES advantage does the rest....If Ramon doesn't come over on Hill the race might have been slightly different but Garcia rode the winner today and deserves the credit for allowing the horse to perform....some call it racing luck but it certainly is not totally random or we are all wasting our time playing the inner in the winter.....bias sure random no!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Alan Garcia deserves the credit? The horse was the fastest early and got loose on a track that carried speed all weekend. He ran a deceptively good race last out, getting the worst of it 3 wide. Today, against softer, he outbroke Accredit and it was over on that track. Of course I wasn't bright enough to bet him, I used All Expenses Paid.

I think the result would have been the same if DrugS was riding the horse.

I think if DrugS was riding Accredit the race would have been run a little differently.

[blackthroatedwind]

IMO, the entire notion of this thread is a perversion of reality. The rides that most horses get are random, and are a waste of time to even attempt to predict, not to mention distracting. You handicap the horses in a race and make your decisions on whether or not to bet, or who to bet, based on the merits of the horses......and not your convaluted ideas of what kind of ride they may get.

Now, when you are handicapping the race you should take into account the trip, which may involve the ride, the horse has gotten recently. You then make your best guess as to what kind of trip it will get in today's race and simply hope for the best. Of course sometimes you will see a horse going from a weaker rider to a better rider, and if this horse has been compromised recently by its rider, then perhaps it is reasonable to assume the horse is slightly more likely to get a better ride today. However, it is the horse that still needs to be good enough to win the race, not the rider on his back.

Bad riders are winning races left and right on the inner track at Aqueduct. Today Rajiv Maragh's utter incompetence eliminated any chance Accredit may have had in today's feature. Yesterday he rode Icabad Crane to victory in the 7th race. He did little right early in the race, saved ground smartly later in the race, benefited from CC Lopez's ineptitude when he needlessly swung He Aint Easy wide on the second turn, and got the win on much the best horse. Was his ride good? Somewhat. Was he helped by the ineptitude of others? Somewhat. But, make no mistake, it was the horse that won the race.

Jockeys lose races....they don't win them.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think if DrugS was riding Accredit the race would have been run a little differently.

Would it have ended like this one or something?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzacCr9-4Es

(Thanks for the link, ed).

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Alan Garcia deserves the credit? The horse was the fastest early and got loose on a track that carried speed all weekend. He ran a deceptively good race last out, getting the worst of it 3 wide. Today, against softer, he outbroke Accredit and it was over on that track. Of course I wasn't bright enough to bet him, I used All Expenses Paid.

I think the result would have been the same if DrugS was riding the horse.

I thought All Expenses Paid got fouled when Ramon seemed hell bent on hip checking him into the fence as he tried to advance on the rail. IMO when I watched the replay he seemed to make a space available smaller. GoGo was not running against Grand Minstrel today but those were decent horses in the 8th today some at more of a advantage in form cycle than others.

As you probably saw today on another thread I thought Garcia was an upgrade that would be felt in the race which turned out correct. I still think that some jocks find ways to win races close in talent and some find ways MORE OFTEN to lose.....it's really not any deeper than that. You give me two essentially equal in ability horses and stick Freddie Fong on one and Gomez on the other and I'll take Gomez. I don't see what is so "perverse from reality" here.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

IMO getting away from a mount because a guy like Nakatani is on is a mistake. The horse is what I bet. Obviously a huge upgrade is noted in my handicapping, but has little to no impact on my wagers and it shouldn't.

How are those dime supers treating you champ? Any 3 figure scores??

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I actually did make a nice score last week. You can read all about it, you know where. Oh wait....

Help Wanted section? Will handicap for food!