capping 101..the "SPOCK HORSE"

[SentToStud]

I think if you're betting against a short price horse the best way is the single race verticals. You can bet a multi-race wager and catch but I'd rather go for the single race crush because if I'm right, the tri/super payoffs will almost always be strong if I hit.

I pretty much look for turf races with full or near-full fields. Two types:

1. The steep dropper from a top barn. Not the claiming guys like Lake or Assmussen but when Pletcher, Zito, Motion, Baffert, K McP, and local guys here like Wolfson drop one for a tag, it's not cause they just want to cash; they want to cash out. If they get steamed to odds-on, they'll probably run well and I'll pass, but 2/1, 5/2 or 3/1 means (for these trainers) they're dead on the board. I'll look at standard factors like recency, works and works vs a similar race pattern in the past to decide to fire. If I find the weakness and there is a horse I like, I'll play my horse in all the tri/super slots with 4-5 others. Using 5 with a key that way is $300, so it's not cheap. And you have to be right on three things: the bad short-priced horse running out, the key and the other 5 completing.

2. The somewhat seasoned late 3 yo or 4 yo maiden (say 3-4 starts) coming off it's best on paper that was much more the result of race dynamics and bad competition than ability. It's pretty amazing how many of these one-race wonders go off 3/2 or shorter in their follow-up for what can be no good reason.

I'm having a bit of success with this lately. Everything else is pretty useless for me right now, though I did have a $15 winner at Palm Beach Dogs a couple weeks ago.