NH Primary

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He had a huge lead in the polls with 24 hours to go - and he supposedly goes out for dinner with his family once the polls close.

He'd have had to come up with a concession speech right off the top of his head.

He didn't even seem to have enough time to change his music that played at the end of his speech.

It was probably the first time ever that a losing candidate had that Stevie Wonder song 'Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I'm Yours' playing after his speech.

"He had a huge lead in the polls with 24 hours to go - and he supposedly goes out for dinner with his family once the polls close."

the bradley effect.

los angeles mayor tom bradley had a significant lead in polls leading up to the 1982 california election for governor. he was declared the winner based on exit polling by all the major networks.

george deukmajian served 2 terms.

there weren't issues with methodology. every poll, including those paid for by the republican candidate, showed similar trends.

the simple view is that people don't want to express an antipathy to a candidate based on race when asked directly one on one. in the privacy of a voting booth it's a different story.

it's probably more complex than that. a lot of polling misses poorer, less educated voters. and thus exaggerates the influence of the college educated middle class.

regardless, i'd be careful before annoiting obama the shoe in nominee. new hampshire may not be the only surprise.

i say that as someone who'll vote for him. at least so far as any of you know.