My Prediction for Santa Anita

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ya Golden Gate's surface has just been super

Owners and trainers are still running thier horses on it no matter what this board has to say. Full fields too.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Owners and trainers are still running thier horses on it no matter what this board has to say. Full fields too.

I am not anti-synthetic but 12 horses have broken down or been vanned off in 17 days at GG so far. That is an insane statistic. If that happened at SA/Hollywood/Del Mar it would be front page news. Del Mar had 8 breakdowns in their entire meet in 06 and it was front page news and probably one of the reasons Cali is all synthetic.

[Riot]

I am not anti-synthetic but 12 horses have broken down or been vanned off in 17 days at GG so far. That is an insane statistic.

I guess the numbers being thrown about (here, Pace Advantage, ATR) reference GG are from Dan Ilman's DRF form blog? What I count from what Dan actually posted is:

2 broke down, 9 vanned off, 5 walked off, 1 stopped work as saddle slipped.

01-04-8:
Dan Ilman: Here's what I found for the last few weeks at Golden Gate:
December 12 - none
December 13 - King of My Castle vanned off, Haint's Deal walked off
December 14 - Roman Wish vanned off
December 15 - Deputy Bertrando walked off, Hampton Way vanned off
December 16 - none
December 22 - Jump Rope Girl broke down
December 26 - Gassan Snow walked off, Guydancefromabove vanned off
December 28 - none
December 29 - Freedom Wins vanned off, Above a Whisper walked off (saddle slipped)
December 30 - none
December 31 - Everlasting Fame walked off
January 1 - Ticketsandtomatoes vanned off, Shawn's Mr. Comet walked off, Fit to Dream vanned off, Mt. Whitney broke down, Inspired Candi vanned off
January 3 - Chestnut Affair vanned off

In thirteen days, seventeen horses had to be helped off the track [Note: Dan is counting the horse whose saddle slipped (??), and those that walked off themselves in his number]. That's not a very good ratio. It may be premature to blame the track, however. Some of these horses were big longshots, and some competed in cheap claiming races prone to sore horses. Still, it's a trend worth following.

More from Dan's Blog:

Blog question: I just wanted to comment on the races on the Tapeta course at Golden Gate. Another 2 horses fell in todays 7th race. I haven't heard anything on the condition of the Horse #7 Gaylas Gala or her jockey. If anyone knows, please respond. I can't believe there has not been any info put out yet by DRF or any other news source.
Craig

Dan Ilman: In my opinion, the incident in race seven on January 7 was a freak accident, and had nothing to do with the surface. One horse clipped heels before going down, and another fell when unable to avoid the first horse. The statistics since the middle of December are a bit disturbing, but one has to question whether it's the track, the quality and soundness of the horses in the first place, or a combination of both.

[The Bid]

What good is having 9 horses in the gate if 1 a race doesnt finish? Ive never seen as many eased walked off running lines in my life. They seemingly have an "eased but walked off" a day. If horses do not handle the tracks, horses are breaking down over the tracks, and horses are coming back sore, what more do the propoly people need? What was the point to installing these tracks if their breakdown rate is the same as dirt, they are harder to take care of, and they arent all weather? They need to be torn out and good solid dirt tracks need to be installed.

[King Glorious]

While these aren't included in the counts, I was looking at the charts for the Golden Gate races and saw a surprisingly high number of horses that had the comment "Stopped". They didn't break down and weren't eased or vanned off so they won't be included in the numbers. But that did jump out at me as unusual. I wonder how many of those horses stopped because they weren't comfortable or because they were injured in some kind of way but not serious enough to have to be eased or to have the van come out.

[Indian Charlie]

Interesting quote from pletcher today:

“A dirt surface isn’t going to discourage us any,” Pletcher said by telephone early Thursday morning from Palm Beach Downs in Florida. “In fact, we might run more horses. We like dirt.”

[Danzig]

so much for the contention that poly is what drew more east coasters. it may have been just a track change period that drew them. what they changed to may have only been secondary.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

While these aren't included in the counts, I was looking at the charts for the Golden Gate races and saw a surprisingly high number of horses that had the comment "Stopped". They didn't break down and weren't eased or vanned off so they won't be included in the numbers. But that did jump out at me as unusual. I wonder how many of those horses stopped because they weren't comfortable or because they were injured in some kind of way but not serious enough to have to be eased or to have the van come out.

Or maybe they haven't been trained to a sufficient degree of fitness to compete at the distance?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Or maybe they haven't been trained to a sufficient degree of fitness to compete at the distance?

Wow.

[Florida Sandy]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Or maybe they haven't been trained to a sufficient degree of fitness to compete at the distance?

Very deep, very insightful.