Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by philcski

A Lady won at the Men's Club 7 months ago. Whats your point?

My point is specifically with the Kentucky Derby. I loved the win at Belmont and cashed the tickets to prove it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

My point is specifically with the Kentucky Derby. I loved the win at Belmont and cashed the tickets to prove it.

Don't worry... a filly will with the Derby again in our lifetime. Just not this year. There's no conspiracy against it happening.

[King Glorious]

They said the same things about Winning Colors. That turned out pretty good.

I like to read all the "he/she won't" comments. I read them prior to the BC races and I'll keep reading them through the TC series. I think it's silly to say that a horse only did something because of this or that. The fact is that she did it. Maybe nobody else was a front runner because nobody else has her speed. It wasn't like she was life and death to hold on in her races. She far outdistanced them and until I see proof that the gap is closing, I have to believe she's still far ahead of them. Now, if she had to face War Pass, that might make things interesting. They could cancel each other out. But if only one of them is there, I see no reason why it couldn't be a wire job in May.

Is Woody Stephens coming back from the grave to give a leg up to Pat Day to instruct him to not let the filly win by any means necessary?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They said the same things about Winning Colors. That turned out pretty good.

I like to read all the "he/she won't" comments. I read them prior to the BC races and I'll keep reading them through the TC series. I think it's silly to say that a horse only did something because of this or that. The fact is that she did it. Maybe nobody else was a front runner because nobody else has her speed. It wasn't like she was life and death to hold on in her races. She far outdistanced them and until I see proof that the gap is closing, I have to believe she's still far ahead of them. Now, if she had to face War Pass, that might make things interesting. They could cancel each other out. But if only one of them is there, I see no reason why it couldn't be a wire job in May.

Is Woody Stephens coming back from the grave to give a leg up to Pat Day to instruct him to not let the filly win by any means necessary?

Saying that a wire-to-wire win over a sloppy track when so many of her foes didn't fire and she shortened stride during slow final fractions is a powerful enough performance to be considered one of four Derby prospects is dicey in my opinion. It is, of course, your list.

At least you had Colonel John on your list who looks like he might be able to get 10 furlongs. I'm highly skeptical of your other three.

NT

[Cajungator26]

Apparently, Country Star is also being pointed to the Derby, so Indian Blessing can have a little filly-to-filly convo with her if they're both in the gate.

All kidding aside, one that I've been interested in is Racecar Rhapsody. Thoughts on him anyone?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Apparently, Country Star is also being pointed to the Derby

I don't believe this either.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Saying that a wire-to-wire win over a sloppy track when so many of her foes didn't fire and she shortened stride during slow final fractions is a powerful enough performance to be considered one of four Derby prospects is dicey in my opinion. It is, of course, your list.

At least you had Colonel John on your list who looks like he might be able to get 10 furlongs. I'm highly skeptical of your other three.

NT

It's often a convenient excuse to say that so many foes didn't fire because of the sloppy track. They said the same thing about War Pass. They said the same thing about Smarty Jones in his Derby. How come it's only the good horses that fire under those circumstances? I could see if she dramatically outran her form due to the slop but she didn't. The race played out EXACTLY like it was predicted to had the race been on dry land. Same thing with the Juvenile. Neither race was won oddly. This wasn't like Easy Goer thrashing Is It True a few times and then Is It True turning the tables on the off track in the Juvenile.

[whodey17]

War Pass winning the Derby is almost as bad as saying Indian Blessing is going to win the Derby.

Here are my top 5

1) Etched
2) Colonel John
3) Check It Twice
4) Court Vision
5) Pyro

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's often a convenient excuse to say that so many foes didn't fire because of the sloppy track.

All of her foes in that race weren't much to start with.

I'm not someone who has any doubt of her raw talent - go watch her debut (at 5.5fs) and than go watch Seattle Slew's first two career races.

She isn't exactly a female Seattle Slew to say the least - her tremendous raw speed has allowed her to win a pair of weak Grade 1 routes inspite of her staggering home late in both races.

Her dam was a confirmed sprinter...and there isn't exactly anything you can pull out of the pedigree in a desperate attempt to make her look like she will stay 10 furlongs inspite of her clearly showing she can't on her 2yo form.

She probably has a much better shot of winning next years F&M Sprint than the Ky Oaks - let alone the Derby.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All of her foes in that race weren't much to start with.

I'm not someone who has any doubt of her raw talent - go watch her debut (at 5.5fs) and than go watch Seattle Slew's first two career races.

She isn't exactly a female Seattle Slew to say the least - her tremendous raw speed has allowed her to win a pair of weak Grade 1 routes inspite of her staggering home late in both races.

Her dam was a confirmed sprinter...and there isn't exactly anything you can pull out of the pedigree in a desperate attempt to make her look like she will stay 10 furlongs inspite of her clearly showing she can't on her 2yo form.

She probably has a much better shot of winning next years F&M Sprint than the Ky Oaks - let alone the Derby.

None of the horses in her pedigree are running in the race so they don't matter. She is. Would you believe an Elusive Quality and Tale of the Cat offspring exacta in a race in which some of the other fancied horses were by Gulch and Pulpit? Pedigree is not as important these days as it used to be.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think it's silly to say that a horse only did something because of this or that. The fact is that she did it.

For the record - I think I easily lead all posters in quantity of posts saying that Rags To Riches had a very strong look in the Belmont Stakes before the race ran.

I'm serious - If Indian Blessing wins the Derby - I will become a muslim.

[DelKev]

[quote=
I'm serious - If Indian Blessing wins the Derby - I will become a muslim.[/QUOTE]

Has a man ever been converted to Islam by an Indian Blessing?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Is Woody Stephens coming back from the grave to give a leg up to Pat Day to instruct him to not let the filly win by any means necessary?

Actually, it was Pat Day's ineptitude that allowed Winning Colors to win that Derby and that was what Woody was reacting to with his foolish tactics in the Preakness. The problem was that what was needed in the Derby was a less passive ride.....not a suicide mission.

Aside from the unlikely scenerio in the Derby that would be beneficial to a horse with Indian Blessing's style, and what appear to be serious distance limitations, she's also slow ( at least going a distance of ground ) and this alone disqualifies her from winning a race like the Derby. She's a fast horse, and may prove a very good one, but not in the KY Derby. Thankfully I imagine Bob Baffert realizes this. But, hey, at least you didn't put The Slowhouse on your list. You seemed to have learned from last year that a slow sibling to Circular Quay might not be a great idea for a Derby horse.

By the way......I know in a short period of time I said she's both " fast " and " slow " but I will assume a man of your stature knows what I mean and won't attempt to take a cheap shot.....especially about such an important issue.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually, it was Pat Day's ineptitude that allowed Winning Colors to win that Derby and that was what Woody was reacting to with his foolish tactics in the Preakness. The problem was that what was needed in the Derby was a less passive ride.....not a suicide mission.

Aside from the unlikely scenerio in the Derby that would be beneficial to a horse with Indian Blessing's style, and what appear to be serious distance limitations, she's also slow ( at least going a distance of ground ) and this alone disqualifies her from winning a race like the Derby. She's a fast horse, and may prove a very good one, but not in the KY Derby. Thankfully I imagine Bob Baffert realizes this. But, hey, at least you didn't put The Slowhouse on your list. You seemed to have learned from last year that a slow sibling to Circular Quay might not be a great idea for a Derby horse.

By the way......I know in a short period of time I said she's both " fast " and " slow " but I will assume a man of your stature knows what I mean and won't attempt to take a cheap shot.....especially about such an important issue.

I know exactly what you meant. I guess that I just don't see her distance limitations. I see a horse that has done what she's needed to do so far and done it in effortless fashion. I don't hold it against her that her rider was just coasting with easy wins already in hand while those behind her were riding away trying to get bigger pieces of the purse. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit that.

[blackthroatedwind]

I also think you need to think more of the quality of the horses that were finishing behind Indian Blessing. It may be extremely limited....at least on the dirt.

[miraja2]

Who cares about the Kentucky Derby anymore? It is just a niche race for horses that specialize in doing odd things like running on real dirt and going 10 furlongs.
I just view it as a stupid old-fashioned distraction to the far more important 8.5f poly races later in the summer.
I'll have my top twenty list for Arlington's Round Table Stakes out by later tonight.