Swisher to Sox

[Cannon Shell]

A good move for the other Sox. Free from the anemic offense of the A's and offense killing stadium in Oakland, Swisher should be a .275 35 105 guy with close to a .400 OBP in Chicago. He strikes out a lot but also walks a ton too. I guess they are thinking of playing him in center where he would be considered average as opposed to a corner where he would be a top defender. I guess if Owens develops, he can take over in center and they can move Swisher around. He can also play 1st which is where he will probably eventually land when Thome retires and Konerko moves to DH. The guy is yong, proven and can handle the Chicago media pressure. They gave up Sweeney and 2 good pitching prospects to get him but he is a hundred times better than Juan Pierre or Posedineck. Plus he is signed through 2011 which is a big plus.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

A good move for the other Sox. Free from the anemic offense of the A's and offense killing stadium in Oakland, Swisher should be a .275 35 105 guy with close to a .400 OBP in Chicago. He strikes out a lot but also walks a ton too. I guess they are thinking of playing him in center where he would be considered average as opposed to a corner where he would be a top defender. I guess if Owens develops, he can take over in center and they can move Swisher around. He can also play 1st which is where he will probably eventually land when Thome retires and Konerko moves to DH. The guy is yong, proven and can handle the Chicago media pressure. They gave up Sweeney and 2 good pitching prospects to get him but he is a hundred times better than Juan Pierre or Posedineck. Plus he is signed through 2011 which is a big plus.

Only problem is Ryan Sweeney is going to be just slightly below a monster in 1-2 years and Gio Gonzales should win 15 a year for many years. Sox had to do something, but god...Swisher stole 4 bases LY and he's going to lead off?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Only problem is Ryan Sweeney is going to be just slightly below a monster in 1-2 years and Gio Gonzales should win 15 a year for many years. Sox had to do something, but god...Swisher stole 4 bases LY and he's going to lead off?

Your projections of Sweeney are pretty optimistic. Gio is a small double A pitcher who may or may not make the jump. De Los Santos is interesting but has been dominating at A level at 21 against mostly 18 year olds.

Stealing bases is of much less importance when you have hitters like Dye, Konerko and Thome hitting behind you. If you get on base enough, which he does, you will wind up jogging home a lot. They are going to be a power team, as they should be in that park and in that division. He hit #2 a lot in Oakland plus he is a switch hitter. I would rather have a 27 year old guy with 40 hr and .400 OBP potential than hope that Sweeney comes around and the prospects make it.

[satan's twin]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Only problem is Ryan Sweeney is going to be just slightly below a monster in 1-2 years and Gio Gonzales should win 15 a year for many years. Sox had to do something, but god...Swisher stole 4 bases LY and he's going to lead off?

This is a nice trade for the Sox. Sweeney and Gonzales may or may not happen, but no time soon. Swisher is a demonstrative, aggressive player who is fun to watch for the home team and a pain in the ass (typical knock on all Ohio State guys?) for the other team. Last year's way too many, 'too-painful-to watch' solo homers just became two and three run shots with this guy, especially in the spring when the weather is horsesh*t and everyone is first-ball swinging. With a little bit of luck, Swisher will come close to a .400 OBP. At the top of this lineup in front of Thome, Konerko and Dye, that's huge. And, THIS guy will be the spokesman for the team and probably, its most popular player. If Ozzie keeps him in left where he belongs and out of center field, Swisher could be there for years.

[declansharbor]

I watched the blood drain from my coworkers face today when I told him of the move. He's an Athletics fan. He didnt believe me, he thought I was selling wolf tickets. I needed a third party to confer for him to believe me.
Great move by the White Sox, to bring in a stick that will hit at least .270 and over 20 dingers.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by satan's twin

This is a nice trade for the Sox. Sweeney and Gonzales may or may not happen, but no time soon. Swisher is a demonstrative, aggressive player who is fun to watch for the home team and a pain in the ass (typical knock on all Ohio State guys?) for the other team. Last year's way too many, 'too-painful-to watch' solo homers just became two and three run shots with this guy, especially in the spring when the weather is horsesh*t and everyone is first-ball swinging. With a little bit of luck, Swisher will come close to a .400 OBP. At the top of this lineup in front of Thome, Konerko and Dye, that's huge. And, THIS guy will be the spokesman for the team and probably, its most popular player. If Ozzie keeps him in left where he belongs and out of center field, Swisher could be there for years.

And he has nice hair

[JJP]

I heard the Baseball America guys on the radio today and they said the Sox gave up their top two pitching prospects. Billy Beane doesn't make too many bad deals. Swisher will get his walks and hit an occasional homer but will be a liability in center. This one will take a few years to evaluate. Probably won't matter as they won't come close to either the Tigers or Indians.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by JJP

I heard the Baseball America guys on the radio today and they said the Sox gave up their top two pitching prospects. Billy Beane doesn't make too many bad deals. Swisher will get his walks and hit an occasional homer but will be a liability in center. This one will take a few years to evaluate. Probably won't matter as they won't come close to either the Tigers or Indians.

They may have been their top 2 prospects but that doesn't mean they are really good. Beane seems to be in complete dump mode, reloading for a run in 2010. I think Swisher fits really well in that lineup in that park. Though I agree he is a little suspect as an everyday centerfielder.

Of course maybe Beane thinks that Swisher is a PED guy who regressed a bit last year without them and figured he would cash in now? Just interesting he would trade a guy with lots of upside who is tied up in a good contract.

[JJP]

From what I understand, Beane wasn't looking to trade Swisher but Williams approached him and made him what he felt was a solid offer.

The Sox figure to get the better of this for 2008 but IMO, going from World Series winner, to just missing the playoffs, then to 72 wins shows the team is in a serious slide and should rebuild. This isn't going to help a team that is probably a few years away.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by JJP

From what I understand, Beane wasn't looking to trade Swisher but Williams approached him and made him what he felt was a solid offer.

The Sox figure to get the better of this for 2008 but IMO, going from World Series winner, to just missing the playoffs, then to 72 wins shows the team is in a serious slide and should rebuild. This isn't going to help a team that is probably a few years away.

Swisher is 26, he should be around for a while. I do agree that they were really bad, and old last year. I wouldn't be shocked if they move or try to move Dye, Konerko, and/or Thome at the deadline if they drop out of it. But for some reason I think they will be better than we are giving them credit for. Of course I thought the Mets would win the World Series last winter and we all know how well that worked out.

[Cannon Shell]

From BBprospectus...


CHICAGO WHITE SOX


Acquired OF/1B-S Nick Swisher from the Athletics for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos, and OF-L Ryan Sweeney.


To be blunt, this was the perfect move for Kenny Williams to pull off as a matter of taking his club's near-term chances seriously. It doesn't rate with Dave Dombrowski's achievements in this winter's Hot Stove League, but it's up there. Swisher's the sort of young veteran that the Sox can contend with now and several years into the future, he gives a heavily right-handed lineup some extra lefty sock (against right-handed pitching, of course), and he's a pull hitter from both sides of the plate coming to a park that has two friendly corners for him to take aim at.

The important thing to remember is that this isn't a player Kenny Williams has to worry about re-signing. The deal really only gets better when you get into the financials and consider his age. Swisher is entering his age-27 season, and he's signed through at least 2011—or the next four seasons—for a little more than $25.5 million, and just under $35 million if they pick up his 2012 option, which would be his age-31 season. Sneaking a peak at Nate's 2008 PECOTA cards and the MORP calculations, Swisher's productivity should be in the .300 range in EqA through 2012, with OBPs around .370 and slugging over .490 all the way through; that's good for about $58 million in value. Remember, no arbitration, no negotiation, and making that call right now, here in January, you're talking about acquiring a key piece for a contending lineup at a price any team that takes the 'c'-word seriously should be able to afford for five years. And because of the great likelihood that Swisher will deliver that value through the next five seasons, this is not at all like retaining Jermaine Dye or trading for Jim Thome—it's about trying to put a solid club on the field for those five years.

Indulge me as I make an unfair comparison. The Royals just spent $36 million for three years on an older, worse player—Jose Guillen—essentially just to get themselves taken seriously when they're ready to get all grown up in a few years. That's not an apples to apples comparison, of course—last spring, Swisher effectively traded two years of free agency for right-now financial security. Where this is an apples to apples comparison is that after losing out on the free agent market, Kenny Williams wound up doing something better than buying a top-shelf free agent—he acquired a player who will deliver better than most of this winter's premium free agents for a fraction of the cost.

In terms of what this does to the club's roster shape, somebody politely said that this creates a competition between Carlos Quentin and Jerry Owens for outfield playing time, with Swisher playing either center or left. On a purely offensive level, it's a no-brainer; Owens is just the latest product from the fifth-outfielder assembly line that makes you wonder why it was built. Unfortunately, there are those pesky real-world defensive considerations, and Swisher's not exactly a quality center fielder. Obviously, a solution that involves three at-bats for Quentin per start and late-game switches that put Owens in the game wouldn't be all that novel; heck, Ozzie Guillen could even make a point of pinch-running for Konerko with Owens if he reaches base in his fourth at-bat, game situation permitting, and optimizing his defense's alignment from there. However, the interesting mix of limitations and virtues that Swisher brings to the mix in picking an alignment lends some credence to the subsequent rumors about a potential deal with the Angels, where Paul Konerko might get sent to Anaheim while the Sox would potentially get Chone Figgins (and something else, of course). This would put Swisher at first, Figgins in center, and address in a pretty proactive manner any concerns about Konerko's near-term decline.

Of course, there's still the problem of who's going to pitch for this team, but maybe the Sox have another masterstroke up their sleeves. Unfortunately, they don't have a whole lot else to deal, having already traded three of their four best prospects. The rules prohibit their dealing the fourth until next summer, and there's not much else left of value that any other team would want. So they are left with the challenge of re-purposing one of their key components, like Konerko, in a deal to strike a better balance between offense and defense. Because right now, as fun as that offense should be, the Sox are still short of being contenders, essentially because of a pitching staff that has three guys they can count on and a couple of dozen question marks.

Finally, on a more personal level, I'm excited, in that Swisher's a lot of fun to watch hit, and now that I'm in Chicago, seeing him play in person as opposed to on the screen that much more often will be that much better, certainly. But as I say below, I'm also a wee bit disappointed on the level of my being an A's fan: seeing Swish play here will be a bittersweet thing.



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