AQU: Fri/Sat Stakes

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know why this horse hasn't generated any buzz. I was wondering why no one was commenting on him back in September:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16820

His 114 Beyer is higher than Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Any Given Saturday ever got. The only 3yo with a better Beyer is Curlin. Will be very interested to see how he does in the Donn which will likely determine whether he goes to the Dubai World Cup or the Godolphin Mile.

I really get annoyed when somebody comes on and says 'he got a big Beyer number so he must be a great horse'. First of all, I don't put much credence in speed numbers as a measure of quality, especially at the NY tracks (and a couple of others) where the numbers seem to be somewhat inflated. Quality is measured in head-to-head competition. In this case, this is a one-turn mile performance - how can that be compared to two-turn distances of 1 or 2 furlongs longer? The races are two different animals.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I really get annoyed when somebody comes on and says 'he got a big Beyer number so he must be a great horse'. First of all, I don't put much credence in speed numbers as a measure of quality, especially at the NY tracks (and a couple of others) where the numbers seem to be somewhat inflated. Quality is measured in head-to-head competition. In this case, this is a one-turn mile performance - how can that be compared to two-turn distances of 1 or 2 furlongs longer? The races are two different animals.

Where did anyone say that Daaher was a " great horse?" Find the post.

Secondly, who the hell cares what you think of Beyer figs? Hell, you call yourself " Pedigree Ann " and have displayed at best a cursory understanding of pedigree. I can only imagine what you know about speed figures. Judging by this post it's zero. But, since you are obviously in dire need of a lesson, and have shown a great willingness to learn on this site, here's a little help for you. Daaher ran 14/5s of a second faster than a Lukas runaway 2YO maiden winner earlier in the card. That's over sixteen lengths which equates to approximately 33 points. Considering the Lukas horse won by open lengths, over a couple of reasonably talented 2YOs, and had received two Beyer figures of 74, it's hardly a stretch to say that he ran a ran a figure of around 80. That would put Daaher's 114 right in line.

As for your comment about quality being measured in head to head competition.......ummmm he drowned recent Breeder's Cup winner Midnight Lute. Who exactly was he supposed to beat for you to have approved of his performance? And, if what you really meant was that he can't be compared to the 3YOs he mentioned, because they raced at different distances, well I think it is obvious to most that he wasn't necessarily saying Daaher was better than those horses, only that his performance certainly warranted discussion.

On your unfounded, and unsubstantiated comments of " bias " in the figs....well Daaher ran a 107 Beyer fig at Saratoga going 1 1/8 miles. Street Sense got a 105 Beyer at 1 1/8 in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga and a 108 at 1 1/4 in the Travers. What was the bias in those numbers at Saratoga that placed Daaher in fair comparison to this year's Derby winner? Plus, the 107, which also equaled Curlin's figure in the Belmont Stakes ( also run on a NY track ), that Daaher received was in just his 5th start. Believe it or not, horses often improve with racing, so it's not a stretch that he has surpassed at least some of those mentioned at this point.

[freddymo]

Pedigree Ann thanks for bringing out his best. It's a true talent to bait a genius.

[King Glorious]

My opinion is that you can't take too much out of this race. Daaher is obviously a quality horse but I don't think this race did anything to prove that. I thought he had only one horse to beat and that one horse had many things going against him. First, there was a nine pound weight disadvantage for ML. Second, he was making a relatively short (for him and for today's racehorse) comeback after being trained to peak just a month ago. I do not like backing horses that come back soon after running in a peak race. Same reason why I'll not bet an Arc winner running back in the BC Turf. Fourth, the winner was allowed to waltz along under very moderate fractions and would have been hard to catch by ANY horse, especially carrying only 114 pounds on his back. Fourth, the distance was further than he had ever shown his best at. I know all about the breathing issues and Baffert saying that they had been overcome but I'm not so sure about how much stock I put into that excuse. I mean, when he was losing his route races early in the year, it's not like he was running horrible races. To me, his performances didn't look like a horse that was having breathing issues. When I see a horse making moves and then all of a sudden stop and give it up, that's when I can see something is wrong. Lute never exhibited that. In his two route tries, he earned figures of 105 and 103 and both races were lost by less than two lengths. Instead of looking like a horse that was running and stopped because he wasn't getting his air, he looked to me like a horse that didn't want to run that far. It looked the same to me in the Cigar. Fifth, it looked like a very overconfident ride by ML's jockey. It seemed like the horse wanted to go on but the rider was fighting not to let him. Maybe it doesn't effect the outcome but I would have liked to see what would have happened had they allowed Lute to go after Daaher earlier and put some pressure on him instead of choking him down and, IMO, taking some of the fight out of him.

[NTamm1215]

As far as the whole rider argument goes, am I the only one who thinks Garrett Gomez is terrible at rating horses and can really only be trusted with one-run closers?

I've got three rides in Grade I races as examples.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Once again a jockey is being given too much credit for affecting the outcome of a race. How in the world the debate about Garrett Gomez's ride could possibly diminish the exceptional performance by Daaher is way beyond me.

Daaher ran well. He didn't run the greatest race we've ever seen but he still ran very well. He also got a good trip, but he made the most of it, and has certainly established himself as a quality animal in a reasonably short period of time. He also showed in the Jerome that he can rate. No, he has not successfully shown an ability to overcome genuine adversity. No, he has not shown absolute brilliance. But, he's pretty good, and in today's racing world where mediocrities are routinely applauded he has certainly shown more than most. Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again a jockey is being given too much credit for affecting the outcome of a race. How in the world the debate about Garrett Gomez's ride could possibly diminish the exceptional performance by Daaher is way beyond me.

Daaher ran well. He didn't run the greatest race we've ever seen but he still ran very well. He also got a good trip, but he made the most of it, and has certainly established himself as a quality animal in a reasonably short period of time. He also showed in the Jerome that he can rate. No, he has not successfully shown an ability to overcome genuine adversity. No, he has not shown absolute brilliance. But, he's pretty good, and in today's racing world where mediocrities are routinely applauded he has certainly shown more than most. Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

Oh no, don't get me wrong, Daaher ran great and the race further proved in my mind that Lute doesn't want anything beyond seven furlongs.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

It is amazing the difference in attention given to the two horses. Discreet Cat finished his 3yo season with wins in an allowance, the Jerome, and the Cigar Mile. His Beyers were 112/115/116. Daaher won the same three races. I don't have his Beyers in front of me but I believe they are something like 107/110/114. Not a lot separating the two there and realistically based on the pattern you could conclude that Discreet Cat had plateaued at that point while Daaher is still on the upswing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Discreet Cat was a story for a year and a half....and apparently only you noticed Daaher a few months ago. With Discreet Cat it was a case of people wanting to be right ( not that he wasn't impressive ) while in this case since most missed the boat they are less than dismissive. Why do you think nobody was even discussing this race?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Where did anyone say that Daaher was a " great horse?" Find the post.

t.

Obviously you overlooked the possibility of hyperbole being employed. Loss of tone of voice in typed communication is a problem.

I thought this was a forum for discussion of points of view. If my opinion of Beyer figures differs from yours, that makes me wrong and ignorant - hardly a position condusive to discussion.

The name Pedigree Ann was given to me on the 'Road to the Roses' contest board many years ago and I have kept it ever since, so that people I know from various boards can recognize me. If you want to question my pedigree geek credentials, I suggest you ask Avalyn Hunter, Alan Porter, and Anne Peters for their opinions of my understanding; the latter two actually hired me to write about pedigrees for a publication they successively edited. You can point out to them their error.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

If you want to question my pedigree geek credentials, I suggest you ask Avalyn Hunter, Alan Porter, and Anne Peters for their opinions of my understanding; the latter two actually hired me to write about pedigrees for a publication they successively edited. You can point out to them their error.

There isn't enough time in the day to call the unfortunate bosses of all the frauds working in this industry.

[freddymo]

OH