National Pride

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, I understand and agree it's hard for the cheap winners to win back, but out of the nine possible returnees at least five, and maybe six, have gone on extended sabaticals. Brown Eyed Belle was gone five months, He's a Ray ten months, Keen Irish made one subsequent start and has now been out three months, Gansevoort ran back in six weeks and has now been gone over ten months, Motovato was purchased, returned in two months, and has been unsighted for almost five months and Deities Day hasn't been seen in over six weeks since his big win.

I realize this is a small sample but, to me, it's not very encouraging.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Yes, it's a very small sample considering he's had close to 400 head come and go through his barn since the first of the year. Thanks for your objective candor, it's refreshing to read.

I agree completely with you about the frustrating prespective relative to the player, I guess it keeps things intereresting..He tries a lot of different angles with underperforming horses; quickly back after a poor effort, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, sprint to route , etc. Tough to guage.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm just focusing on his relatively recent first time starters that won as that is the category National Pride falls under.

The two horrid purchases Paul Reddam made, Marquis Diamond ( who performed abyssmally in two subsequent starts and hasn't been seen since March ) and Barcola, were simply bad buys and whoever advised Mr. Reddam did a poor job of research. Both of those horses were bought off high Beyer figures ( Marquis Diamond an 83 and Barcola around a 114 ) earned when loose on enormous inside speed biases on the inner dirt. I feel I can say this now because I said it then on Byk's show.

From the perspective of Contessa's owners he did a great job in the case of both of those horses. If National Pride has indeed been sold for a substantial amount of money it is frankly another feather in his cap......and yet another good example ( at least for Gary ) as to why nobody should listen to me.

[Linny]

I am not sure statisticaly but I would guess that his record with "first out to future success" is no better or worse than most. This I would believe especially if you take out the "elite" types like the multi million $$$ babies that guys like Pletcher etc get.
When he does get a decent horse (Gansevoort was pretty well regarded last winter and Mayan King from a few years ago may have been his) he does OK. I remember Mission Approved's win. He would have been 30-1 had he not had an entrymate with a decent start or two under his belt. I think he bucked shins which is VERY common after a strenuous first out win.
The fact is that guys like Todd and Rick Violette and McLaughlin see horses sidelined off debut maiden wins all the time. The difference is that most of those guys start out with better quality stock. It's fair to say that given the cost of his stock, overall that Gary does OK with young stock.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

I am not sure statisticaly but I would guess that his record with "first out to future success" is no better or worse than most. This I would believe especially if you take out the "elite" types like the multi million $$$ babies that guys like Pletcher etc get.
When he does get a decent horse (Gansevoort was pretty well regarded last winter and Mayan King from a few years ago may have been his) he does OK. I remember Mission Approved's win. He would have been 30-1 had he not had an entrymate with a decent start or two under his belt. I think he bucked shins which is VERY common after a strenuous first out win.
The fact is that guys like Todd and Rick Violette and McLaughlin see horses sidelined off debut maiden wins all the time. The difference is that most of those guys start out with better quality stock. It's fair to say that given the cost of his stock, overall that Gary does OK with young stock.

Both Gansevoort and Mayan King have suffered through significant layoffs and back up my claims.

I agree about the guys you mentioned ( though I don't think Rick Violette necessarily belongs with Todd and Kiaran ) but would be interested to see you post specifics concerning their maiden breakers.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Both Gansevoort and Mayan King have suffered through significant layoffs and back up my claims.

I agree about the guys you mentioned ( though I don't think Rick Violette necessarily belongs with Todd and Kiaran ) but would be interested to see you post specifics concerning their maiden breakers.

I'd have to research their stats. I added Violette because he generally has well meant firsters, not so much because they are in the same price range or class level as TAP and KM. He spans the gap between those two and a guy like Gary.

I suppose what would be needed is detailed follow up on ever first out winner in NY over the course of at least a year. That way you'd have several class levels covered. I think it's fair to say that far more is expected of the "typical" Spa maiden breaker than anything Gary saddles in November at AQU. I'd be curious to see what their overall records are.

Great, now I've established a project for myself and I'll end up overloading my damn stablemail with names of horses I'll never see again.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

Great, now I've established a project for myself and I'll end up overloading my damn stablemail with names of horses I'll never see again.

Way to go, Linny