Handicapping Question - Race 7 Aqu 11/18

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Was wondering if anyone would care to offer an opinion or two on the approach they would have or did take in this race. The 3, Bailero, was the clear cut favorite; selected by all three of the DRF cappers and thus their concensus pick of the day. The 8yo Roy was coming in off a victory 10 days ago in a 16k n1y claiming event, the condition meeting win over the same AQU track back in April. He went off as the post time favorite at 9-5 and of course won.

He really hadn't shown much form at all since that win in April, and the move up to 25K off of only 10 days rest certainly made him appear to be vunerable at least in my mind's eye, especially considering the field he was facing today.

Wall Street Scandal, Military Major, River Mtn Road, My Husband and Reaffirmed all looked to me, on paper, as much more logical choices, considering recent form at this level, recent BSF's, etc.

The question is, what did the DRF folks see here to select him (correctly) as such an overwhelming favorite? This was the kind of race that really makes one go through their approach to try and decipher whether they are missing something, of if this was simply a "horse for course" going back to the April win.

It's Dutrow, Prado, and it's Aqueduct. He makes moves like that all the time, Indian War Dance another example of the 16k N1Y-to-50k winner in the span of 10 days. And yes, it makes me sick.