BC Day 2 Plays

[Cannon Shell]

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

I doubt if he actually goes off at 30/1. My guess would be he is more in the 15/1 - 20/1 range by post time.
I agree that his ability to turn on the kick late (which he did over this track, at this distance, earlier in the year) makes him a very live longshot, but I can't really get a feel for this race at all. That and my general inability to handicap turf races makes this a skip race for me.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

Would seem to be the only reason that I could agree on. Would be a major fluke but at least you will get good odds. I'm thinking 50-1 or more in a 14 horse field. Though i do like him more than Icy Atlantic and My Typhoon who will be overbet because of her stupid name.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?

It is not that anyone is scary but he may get shuffled back with the speed on the outside. Plus he is not really that good. I believe that his win over the track is rendered meaningless due to the obviously different condition of the course. I'm not trying to talk you off him but I have heard several people say they like this horse and i cant see it. I think the Euro, Jeremy , may be a play at 10-1 or higher. Not buying into Excellent Art from the outside.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?

You really think he will be 50-1? If he is anywhere close to that I will have to change my mind and play the race and bet on him.
I think when people see the way the course is playing and the way he ran there last time they will actually bet him down from his 30-1 ML because there isn't anybody else that wonderful in here. At 20-1, I don't like him at all. At 40-1, I think he is very interesting.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Don't think he'll be 50-1, although he might. He might get lost in the betting. Even at 20-1 I have to make a win bet on him.

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

Not laughing...just trying to figure out the reasoning why I have seen at least 2 posters here and three guys at Keeneland talking about or picking a horse that I expected no one to pick. I would laugh at George Washington though. And Fry Guy gets a chuckle.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Honestly on a firm turf I think he has no shot. But it is and will be a bog. Speed looked like it was tiring very bad on the turf today and Gomez is overly patient if anything. He has a shot.

I think speed tired on in the juvy because the pace was fast despite Trevors call. They went the second half slower than the 1st which is not like usual on turf.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It was fast, you're right. Speed came back in the other turf race too though. Could have just been closers were better anyway. Either way, value wise, it's probably the race of the day. And I agree, very tough to gauge.

Value is the most misused word in the betting lexicon. Value is only important when you win. The races with the most value are the ones you get more money back in than you put in. Betting on losers who are good prices will get you broke in a hurry. If you love a horse and his price is too short and there are no exotic plays that make sense, skip the race. Too many guys go against the horse they think will win because they dont like his price. The horse they like wins, they lose but they feel good about themselves because the got value. Makes no sense. That is the Cannon Shell betting editorial of week.





I say this because i can already see me sitting there with $500 worth of losing tickets after this race saying...you know I shoulda had that....

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Thanks for the lesson.

May the force be with you...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Thanks for the lesson.

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....


all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.

[justindew]

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't been listening that closely.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....

all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.

Three words














Dont do it....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The weeks not over.

Of that I am thankfull.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

And one of these days I'll need a full version of the Emily stuff. I only have bits and pieces and I'm nosey. I also am way more pathetic IMO with my ex, so it could be fun.

Nah, I doubt it will be fun.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez. I woul like him if you cut his post in half. Though if he leaves hard and other take back may be sitting third while not too wide on first turn. Impossibly tough race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Impossibly tough race.

Couldn't agree more.