hypothetical derby

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's my line

1. Giacomo 75-1
2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1
3. Congaree 25-1
4. Aptitude 20-1
5. Peace Rules 50-1
6. Birdstone 25-1
7. Point Given 6-1
8. Barbaro 7-1
9. Afleet Alex 9-1
10. Smarty Jones 10-1
11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1
12. Empire Maker 12-1
13. War Emblem 15-1
14. Funny Cide 20-1
15. Bernardini 10-1
16. Red Bullet 30-1
17. Monarchos 12-1
18. Perfect Drift 30-1
19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1
20. Proud Citizen 75-1

First of all let me congratulate the original poster on a pretty good list. I kept thinking that there had to be somebody better than Proud Citizen to include on the list....but I actually can't think of anyone.
Secondly, JJP's line seems fairly reasonable and if those were the odds I would be putting my money on what I see as the value horses. They are:

#6 Birdstone - 25/1 - almost always tough on a dry track
#11 FuPeg - 15/1 - looked very good in his derby to be at this price
#16 Red Bullet - 30/1 - definitely capable of hitting the board

[Pointg5]

Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...

PG, that was one of the funniest things ever
umm...hey give Bellamy Road a mulligan
and he whips this field into submission
but, I'd take Empire Maker (1)
Point Given (not today, revisited)
Barbaro (2)
Monarchos (3)
Bernadini at 10/1 (wow) & Smarty Jones at 10/1 (wow)
can I get that 1 on 1 wager at even money?

Barbaro
Smarty
Afleet Alex
Monarchos
Bernardini

One of these five with the edge to Barbaro who seemed to be able to win on dirt, turf, offtracks, anything.

[Kasept]

It's a great hypo, and the thing you have to qualify is whether all are 100% at their finest the day of the running...

If they are, you also have to acknowledge the pace scenario would be red hot and your most likely winner would be coming from off the pace.

Do you also get to assume that the 20 post doesn't destroy your chances? Or are the posts listed is if they are running at Churchill from those slots? Are we assuming there's no extreme trouble for anyone too?

All those conditions would point to Monarchos since he ran down as good a group as we've had in the Derby during that period chasing hot fractions.. And he did it earning huge figures... And from an extreme post.

1. Monarchos
2. Point Given
3. Smarty Jones
4. Perfect Drift
5. Empire Maker
6. Barbaro
7. Afleet Alex
8. Ten Most Wanted

[Scav]

Empire Maker easily, he got third on 3 hooves

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's a great hypo, and the thing you have to qualify is whether all are 100% at their finest the day of the running...

If they are, you also have to acknowledge the pace scenario would be red hot and your most likely winner would be coming from off the pace.

Do you also get to assume that the 20 post doesn't destroy your chances? Or are the posts listed is if they are running at Churchill from those slots? Are we assuming there's no extreme trouble for anyone too?

All those conditions would point to Monarchos since he ran down as good a group as we've had in the Derby during that period chasing hot fractions.. And he did it earning huge figures... And from an extreme post.

1. Monarchos
2. Point Given
3. Smarty Jones
4. Perfect Drift
5. Empire Maker
6. Barbaro
7. Afleet Alex
8. Ten Most Wanted

good responses all.
of course people can set up the hypothetical any way they desire, but my intention was simply to say "these 20 horses reasonably healthy, and in their typical form during may and june of their 3yo years." not necessarily their very best day ever. i know this is pretty vague, but that was the discussion we had.
as for post positions, i just did 20 horses because that is the standard # of derby entrants nowadays. in my hypothetical scenario it is 20 horses leaving from the churchill starting gate in these positions. that is why i put the horses that i included just to get a full field of 20 (giacomo and proud citizen) in the worst positions and put most of the favorites near the middle.

personally i think the pace would be extremely fast - and i would like point given over afleet alex and - as my long shot - aptitude.

[31lengths]

Barbaro/Afleet Alex, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones.