Saturday's Results

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He only won with one firster on the dirt in 2006 at Saratoga.

Maybe his crop isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, though he certainly has the numbers ( maybe more ), but he dramatically underperformed across the board in Saratoga.

Here are his numbers for the previous five years....


2007 13 / 115 11% Wins 36% ITM 0.75 ROI

2006 24 / 116 21% 50% 1.73

2005 22 / 100 22% 49% 1.60

2004 33 / 120 27.5% 56% 1.80

2003 35 / 125 28% 57% 2.21


Overall 127 / 576 22% 50% 1.63

HUGE dropoff doesn't begin to describe it.

[sumitas]

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

[SuffolkGirl]

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SuffolkGirl

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

don't hold your breath hun...

[Port Conway Lane]

I just checked his maidens in the last 30 days and while the results at the spa were below par he is 23% with all maidens. His top tier maidens appear to be below par. The graded stakes and allowance runners have been underperforming more so than his maidens.
I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

Which we should cheering because if TAP is a play against then the payoff on the winners is higher than expected. Like today with Bear Now going off 8.40-1 when it opened at 5-1. As long as your picking winners Todd is making sure your paid better than you should expect

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

This Pletcher 'snide' has racked my brain since toga opened. I was at first chalking it up to the law of averages, and even the best of the best in every sport go through slumps. The high-profile runners have been well documented, most notibly R2R. It wasn't until the "Belle of Belmont" shocking defeat that I stood back and felt a tinny bit of pity for the rigid grey goose. The fact is that the entire barn is on tilt. The everyday maiden and alwn1x runners are not even coming close to running the type of races we have come to expect.

However, every weekend when I go to the OTB, I warn myself that this is the saturday that the T.A.P. reopens. I run to the windows to get the 5-1 that would of been 5-2 two months ago, feeling like the genius that thinks he is the first to notice a track bias.

I will say that that I made a hit with wait a while going on the angle that she did all her prepping at churchill away from all the bad karma.

I think he ran alot of good first timers at monmouth rather than waiting for toga. Alot of the dogwood horses and The Roundhouse I know won there. The snide will eventually end!

Good thread, BTW..

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I know the issue was discussed here, but I wonder: aren't people on the backstretch discussing Pletcher's recent numbers?

Yes. They are.

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

Staff changes?
Suspension changed training routines?
Horse Quality?
Biancone effect?
Just bad luck? (he did win with a 2 yo on Friday)
Too much focus on big horses?
Criticism not valid (only 7 or 8 weeks and did win $2 mil+ and four Gradeds at Sar)?
Too much time evaluating Kee Sales?
Bug in barn?
Family stuff?
Being such a big operation just caught up?

It's probably a number of factors at play. Who knows which ones. But I'd say the "slump" probably goes on for a while. You can turn a rowboat around in a second. But a ship as big as the one he's driving takes time to turn.