Saturday's Results

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

Didn't I read somewhere that he said his crop of 2yo's this year just really isn't as good as years past?

He only won with one firster on the dirt in 2006 at Saratoga.

Maybe his crop isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, though he certainly has the numbers ( maybe more ), but he dramatically underperformed across the board in Saratoga.

Here are his numbers for the previous five years....


2007 13 / 115 11% Wins 36% ITM 0.75 ROI

2006 24 / 116 21% 50% 1.73

2005 22 / 100 22% 49% 1.60

2004 33 / 120 27.5% 56% 1.80

2003 35 / 125 28% 57% 2.21


Overall 127 / 576 22% 50% 1.63

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He only won with one firster on the dirt in 2006 at Saratoga.

Maybe his crop isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, though he certainly has the numbers ( maybe more ), but he dramatically underperformed across the board in Saratoga.

Here are his numbers for the previous five years....


2007 13 / 115 11% Wins 36% ITM 0.75 ROI

2006 24 / 116 21% 50% 1.73

2005 22 / 100 22% 49% 1.60

2004 33 / 120 27.5% 56% 1.80

2003 35 / 125 28% 57% 2.21


Overall 127 / 576 22% 50% 1.63

HUGE dropoff doesn't begin to describe it.

[sumitas]

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

[SuffolkGirl]

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SuffolkGirl

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

don't hold your breath hun...

[Port Conway Lane]

I just checked his maidens in the last 30 days and while the results at the spa were below par he is 23% with all maidens. His top tier maidens appear to be below par. The graded stakes and allowance runners have been underperforming more so than his maidens.
I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I know the issue was discussed here, but I wonder: aren't people on the backstretch discussing Pletcher's recent numbers?

Yes. They are.

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

Staff changes?
Suspension changed training routines?
Horse Quality?
Biancone effect?
Just bad luck? (he did win with a 2 yo on Friday)
Too much focus on big horses?
Criticism not valid (only 7 or 8 weeks and did win $2 mil+ and four Gradeds at Sar)?
Too much time evaluating Kee Sales?
Bug in barn?
Family stuff?
Being such a big operation just caught up?

It's probably a number of factors at play. Who knows which ones. But I'd say the "slump" probably goes on for a while. You can turn a rowboat around in a second. But a ship as big as the one he's driving takes time to turn.

[blackthroatedwind]

Here are the 2YO numbers....



2007 3 / 47 6% Wins 30% ITM

2006 12 / 44 27% 55%

2005 7 / 38 18% 42%

2004 16 / 45 36% 60%

2003 13 / 46 28% 59%


Thus his non - 2YO numbers are


2007 10 / 68 15% Wins 40% ITM

2006 12 / 72 17% 47%

2005 15 / 62 24% 53%

2004 17 / 75 23% 53%

2003 22 / 79 28% 56%

[GPK]

hard to pin the blame on "lack of good 2yo's" in his barn. This guy is handed the best baby horse flesh year in and year out. Your numbers don't drop that dramatically from one year to the next based on that excuse alone.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

hard to pin the blame on "lack of good 2yo's" in his barn. This guy is handed the best baby horse flesh year in and year out. Your numbers don't drop that dramatically from one year to the next based on that excuse alone.

However, his non-2YO numbers dropped of last year as well.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

However, his non-2YO numbers dropped of last year as well.

but not quite as dramatically...

you bring up a good point and like you, I am surprised it hasn't been discussed.

[GPK]

whats really odd to me...is not just the drop in win % and ITM %...but the dramatic drop in starters. What could be to blame there?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

whats really odd to me...is not just the drop in win % and ITM %...but the dramatic drop in starters. What could be to blame there?

The number of starters have been fairly consistent.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by GPK

whats really odd to me...is not just the drop in win % and ITM %...but the dramatic drop in starters. What could be to blame there?

I have not read this whole thread, pardon me if I repeat someone...

TP has dropped off in NY but in Jersey and Illinois he's maintained his usual figs. Has he changed help? Has the question of the condition of the racing/training surfaces been brought up?
Something clearly is amiss with the "A Team" that's based in NY. His numbers ot the elite level declined even while his stable has grown. To me that says theat they are getting hurt between races or before their debut. The condition of the tracks has been a hot button issue for horsemen and though Todd has not been extremely vocal, even in the wake of Rag's injury, I have to assume that it's playing a role.

Cardus: Yep, it was discussed regularly on the Spa backstretch and I'd guess it's still a topic of chat at Belmont.
BTW: I agree with your premise, but the The Leopard at anything less than 5-1 was a joke. Esp. after seeing Immortal Eyes choke in the Belmont MSW.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

but not quite as dramatically...

you bring up a good point and like you, I am surprised it hasn't been discussed.

When you compile an operation like the " Pletcher Machine " you have to expect to have your numbers scrutinized. In Baseball, small market teams that spend little money are expected to not do well ( especially these days ), but if teams like the Red Sox and Yankees underperform there's non-stop scrutiny ( probably too much ). It's just the nature of the beast. I'm sorry there isn't more of it in racing.

However, I'm sure that Todd scrutinizes them as well as anybody and perhaps he's his own harshest critic. He's a very smart person.....he knows what responsibilities he's placed upon himself and I'm sure he takes these numbers as seriously as anyone.