My early BCC morning line

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I'm thinking you are just a bit high on the odds of him not making the race. My guess is Pletcher is going to do his normal "train him up to the race" which would really make it difficult to believe he won' be there. While i know there is always that chance that something could go wrong in training, it seems like a most unlikely scenerio. With that in mind, if he does train up to the race, coming off of his last 2 wins, IMO he'd be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-5 no matter who he is running against. Even though the 3YO's are talented, see Bernardini on how those 3YO's perform in the Classic. Tiznow is the only 3YO to win the Classic since 2000. Now don't misunderstand, I won't be betting LR in the future book or on race day. But for those Pletcher lovers and those who love LR, 7-2 right now is awfully enticing. He did look pretty damn good last Saturday.

True, training up to the Classic would reduce the chance of not making the race. But IMO, it also reduces the chance of winning the race. Even Pletcher has said that Lawyer Ron thrives on race activity.

Say there is just a 15% chance Lawyer Ron does NOT make the race. Then 7-2 becomes 3-1. And I would not like 3-1 on Lawyer Ron in the Classic if he has not run in 8 weeks. I actually think there is at least a 25% chance he won't make the race, even if Pletcher opts to train him up to the Classic.

I agree that Lawyer Ron has looked awesome in his last two. But Slewbopper is correct to point out AGS's outstanding run on the Monmouth track. And I'm not sure we've seen the best from Curlin yet. And how good is Grasshopper? Street Sense will get plenty of support on a big race day, too.

As far as no 3-yr-old winning since 2000, many of the best were retired before the Classic.

I will be surprised if Lawyer Ron goes off at lower than 5-2 on race day. I'd rather have 5-2 on raceday than 7-2 right now. (though, like you, I almost certainly won't bet either one.)

--Dunbar