My early BCC morning line

[ninetoone]

I don't see Cowtown Cat on that list

[miraja2]

Circular Quay at 25/1 seems a bit odd to me, as does including Perfect Drift and Point Determined at all.
I would put the odds of CQ making the gate at around 35/1, and of winning it at around 75/1.
As for the two PDs, I don't see any chance of them being in that race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think you might even be being generous in terms of CQ. I'd say the chance of him making it in the 200 to 300-1 range. And winning it, zero chance.

You are probably right.

[cmorioles]

NoLuv,

Lava Man at 50 to 1? Come on, be serious. He is better than most of those you have rated above him on dirt, especially at a track like Monmouth.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

NoLuv,

Lava Man at 50 to 1? Come on, be serious. He is better than most of those you have rated above him on dirt, especially at a track like Monmouth.

Everyone,

These are not MY odds. These are the odds posted at www.wsex.com, an offshore, sports-betting website, that takes some horse racing action and posts futures. You can actually bet these horses, at these odds, right now at the website above. My only point(s) regarding the odds I posted were that LAWYER RON was nice at 7-2 and GRASSHOPPER looked real nice at 25-1. I will add that they certainly do not focus on racing which is why there are some horses that are retired and such that have not been removed from the board as of yet. But along that same line of thinking, that would be why IMO there are overlays available.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Everyone,

These are not MY odds. These are the odds posted at www.wsex.com, an offshore, sports-betting website, that takes some horse racing action and posts futures. You can actually bet these horses, at these odds, right now at the website above. My only point(s) regarding the odds I posted were that LAWYER RON was nice at 7-2 and GRASSHOPPER looked real nice at 25-1. I will add that they certainly do not focus on racing which is why there are some horses that are retired and such that have not been removed from the board as of yet. But along that same line of thinking, that would be why IMO there are overlays available.

Good description of wsex.com. Before the 2007 Ky Derby, their future odds were embarrassingly bad. But with the 2007 Derby futures, wsex was actually competitive with odds from Pinnacle, TheGreek, etc.

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good description of wsex.com. Before the 2007 Ky Derby, their future odds were embarrassingly bad. But with the 2007 Derby futures, wsex was actually competitive with odds from Pinnacle, TheGreek, etc.

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

I'm thinking you are just a bit high on the odds of him not making the race. My guess is Pletcher is going to do his normal "train him up to the race" which would really make it difficult to believe he won' be there. While i know there is always that chance that something could go wrong in training, it seems like a most unlikely scenerio. With that in mind, if he does train up to the race, coming off of his last 2 wins, IMO he'd be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-5 no matter who he is running against. Even though the 3YO's are talented, see Bernardini on how those 3YO's perform in the Classic. Tiznow is the only 3YO to win the Classic since 2000. Now don't misunderstand, I won't be betting LR in the future book or on race day. But for those Pletcher lovers and those who love LR, 7-2 right now is awfully enticing. He did look pretty damn good last Saturday.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

So my original morning line is somewhat accurate in your opinion. I accomplished my goal. I got people talking. I still like AGS at 5/1 or better with his dynamite win over the Monmouth surface. Too bad that I won't play the BC game and give them $25 to park and $50 to be in attendance without being allowed to see a horse running on the track. Give me the Haskell any day