Is It Too Early To Ask Who Should Be In The Breeders Cup Juvenile

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

IMO, it's way too early to try and project a field for a race like that.

Very few top two-year-olds have yet to even run beyond six furlongs -- and lets face it -- it can be tricky to project who will improve the most from 2yo's sprinting in August to going a two-turn route later on in the year.

I believe if you go back to '98, not a single horse who's won the Breeders Cup Juvenile had a North American stakes win through August of his 2-year-old season.

Sorry to dodge the question....but I believe it's too premature to answer it. I know if I was looking for a future book bet -- I'd want a 2yo who I believe is capable of thriving at a route distance, with off-the-pace or closing tactics. Those types have won the race the last four years. And, while the last two winners Stevie Wonderboy and Street Sense were very deserving winners -- some very mediocre 2-year-olds (Anees, Wilko, Action This Day) have scored giant upsets in the past...because they had the distance pedigrees, had the pace setups, and caught fields overflowing with brilliant sprinter types.

I posted this elsewhere -- but, here's a stat some might find interesting...

2yo's who broke their maiden going six furlongs or futher at Saratoga while earning a Beyer of 89 or more.

2007:

The Leopard (94)
Slew's Tiznow (90)

2006:

Tiz Wonderful (99)

2005:

Discreet Cat (106)
Deputy Glitters (92)

2004:

Sense of Style (91)
Proud Accolade (93)

2003:

Birdstone (99)
Purge (89)
Eurosilver (96)

2002:

Sky Mesa (92)
Atfirstblush (91)

In the five years prior to this year -- of the ten horses who pulled this off, nine of them became multiple Graded Stakes winners, six of them won Grade 1 races.

very interesting..thanks