Ryan is Flying- Today Bel 7th

[blackthroatedwind]

I am rarely a big advocate of short priced horses, especially off layoffs, but isn't Melhor Ainda in a completely different league than these horses?

I have a small backup with Brunilda but barring an incident I think the favorite is a mortal lock here.

[Gander]

Buddy, Brunilda was scratched hours ago. Not sure what kind of backup you can have there

[blackthroatedwind]

Sorry, I meant Bright Abundance.

I decided to try and get Natalie Beach into the exacta, or triple, as she is WAY too big a price. Only used the fav on top.

[Downthestretch55]

Tim,
Nice pick on Ryan.

[Assttodixie]

Does anyone know what the percentages are for the rider/trainer combo of Obrien and Velasquez over the last two years? For some reason, I remember betting this combo before with success although JV doesnt take many mounts from him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Considering Leo O'Brien almost never wins I can't imagine it is too special.

This is one of the sillier " angles " if you ask me. So Johnny rides a few for his father-in-law, and taking the mount on a 2-1 shot today was hardly any kind of big favor, and they are always overbet due to the combination. I would be shocked if the ROI is anywhere close to the takeout ( 1.70 ) and would expect it to be much closer to 1.00. Probably 1.25 is the absolute high end.

[Assttodixie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Considering Leo O'Brien almost never wins I can't imagine it is too special.

This is one of the sillier " angles " if you ask me. So Johnny rides a few for his father-in-law, and taking the mount on a 2-1 shot today was hardly any kind of big favor, and they are always overbet due to the combination. I would be shocked if the ROI is anywhere close to the takeout ( 1.70 ) and would expect it to be much closer to 1.00. Probably 1.25 is the absolute high end.

Yeah, youre probably right. Maybe i pay too much attention to things like that. It just seems like there are sometimes where you can find something.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just looked it up. Over the last five years they are 10% together with an ROI of $1.20.

I would recommend, as always, that handicapping is better than angles....especially ones involving jockeys.