Hard Spun - Haskell

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The track has a reputation for playing kindly to front runners and while it's probably true, I'm not so sure it has lately. Speed helps at any track really, except for maybe Del mar and Keeneland, but I saw a few races on Wednesday and the track seemed to be fair, at least in the routes.

Now I would not be shocked at all to see a souped up track, it's becoming commonplace on these big days. But it's sort of tough to count on a speed favoring track. Hard Spun is a nice horse. If he has improved since the Belmont he rates a big shot. But it really looks like the pace scenario is against him.

The leader after the opening 1/4 mile in The Haskell has been 1st or 2nd the last 6 years.

2006 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2004 - 1st
2003 - 1st
2002 - 1st
2001 - 2nd

I think the real question is how much better have these 3 year old become since the Belmont. The big players, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday have become significantly better imo. Curlin... I dont know, but he was already very good.

I have not forgotten those fractions in the Belmont. That was horrible for Hard Spun. over 50 seconds for 4f... 1:15 4/5 for 6f.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What makes you think Hard Spun has become significantly better?

Exactly, he hasn't raced since the Belmont. I believe people are overthinking this. It's really between AGS and Curlin, especially with the likely pace scenario.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What makes you think Hard Spun has become significantly better?

I notice you did not ask why I think AGS has become better. His win over Nobiz was good, but there are other things that have happened to AGS imo.
Larry Jones on Hard Spun. Who may not be the most reliable of sources as he is very optimistic. In fact, if Curliln and AGS take enough money, I might just bet him.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I didn't ask why you thought AGS was better because there is evidence he's better. His Dwyer was a huge step forward.

Trainerspeak is probably the worse thing you can listen to. What's Jones going to say, that he's expecting to run bad?

No its what he is not saying as well... Asmussen on Curlin: The ultimate goal is the BCC of course.
How about asking Asmussen if wanted a slower track another 1/16 or an 1/8 was added. You think he would take that? I do.

Hard Spun has muscled up and ready for this race. We will see if the other speed hurts him. And if Hard Spun goes off at 5/2 Im not biting. Im counting on AGS to be the second favorite.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?

I'm with you on that.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Sure, but it's important to realize that those 6 were all very logical, and stalkers and or front runners. I guess point Given in 2001 was more of a mid pack/closer, but with no speed he was up close. In 2002 obviously War Emblem was a front runner as we saw in the Derby and Preakness. Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Roman Ruler in 2005 and Bluegrass Cat last year.

Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?

Whether they are better or not isn't the question. I think at Monmouth Hard Spun has a distinct advantage. Curlin very well could be better, not so sure about Any Given Saturday.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Whether they are better or not isn't the question. I think at Monmouth Hard Spun has a distinct advantage. Curlin very well could be better, not so sure about Any Given Saturday.

Yeah but Curlin also can be taken back or pressed to the lead.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Yeah but Curlin also can be taken back or pressed to the lead.

IMO there is no way Curlin runs with Hard Spun. That would be suicide for him.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Sure, but it's important to realize that those 6 were all very logical, and stalkers and or front runners. I guess point Given in 2001 was more of a mid pack/closer, but with no speed he was up close. In 2002 obviously War Emblem was a front runner as we saw in the Derby and Preakness. Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Roman Ruler in 2005 and Bluegrass Cat last year.

Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?

no, there's other speed in there--but remember where the other speed that tried to go with hard spun finished in the derby? they couldn't keep up with him, and he damned near won it...of course, curlin suffered from a poor trip, and came on for third--he's the one to beat here, but i think hard spun can do it.

of course a spun/curlin ex won't pay jack. but i think it's those two at the wire.

[herkhorse]

HS-AGS/HS-AGS/All/Curlin Superfecta

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

That's the thing though, no one really did go with him in the Derby, he had it pretty much his own way. Stormello, who IMO is faster than Hard Spun took back.

All I know is, if Hard Spun wins I'll have plenty of crow to eat and I'll be losing money.

oh yeah!! the 'new' stormello...they suddenly were going to teach him to rate....that worked well.

[sumitas]

Stormello could very well be the fastest 3 year old miler running today. He should be in the top 3 at the wire.