Zayat is Leaving; Baffert hates it

[ArlJim78]

whatever the track variation is morning to afternoon, tight or loose, someone is winning those races other than Baffert, and they are dealing with the same circumstances as Baffert and are doing so with less "brilliant" horses than he has. how do they do it?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

whatever the track variation is morning to afternoon, tight or loose, someone is winning those races other than Baffert, and they are dealing with the same circumstances as Baffert and are doing so with less "brilliant" horses than he has. how do they do it?

well...yeah, that's true. and an excellent point.

Originally Posted by Danzig

well...yeah, that's true. and an excellent point.

I think the complainers' argument is that the track--in the afternoon--isn't conducive to having the "fastest" horse win. Of course you can say that the horse that reaches the wire first IS the "fastest," but a very tiring surface may well take more out of a horse that runs hard early. I was very much in favor of synthetic surfaces when it just appeared that tracks either couldn't, or wouldn't, make dirt surfaces safe. But nobody realized that at least some synthetic surfaces seem to be drastically changing "the game." The developers didn't market them by saying "They're safer, and by the way they're so deep and tiring that many of your most popular and expensive breeding lines will be worthless on them." And as for saying "Well, they shouldn't have bought those horses," I don't think anyone could have predicted how Poly was going to play at Del Mar. Apparently it CAN provide a surface which plays more like dirt--so why not do it, at least for now?

[Hawk]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's not just a couple of guys complaining. Believe that. KY Sasquatch just hit it on the head. Baffert is not complaining because he's not winning. He didn't complain at Hollywood either and most important, both he and Zayat say that they LIKE the track at Del Mar. They both say that in the mornings, the track is fine but that it's how it changes in the afternoons that is the concern. They are complaining more about the consistency of the track, not how fast or slow it is.

Many tracks run differently in the AM than in the afternoon. Even with the dirt here @ DMR it ran differently. So what? Is it time to freak out and change the course for Zayat? Doubtful.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Diver52

I think the complainers' argument is that the track--in the afternoon--isn't conducive to having the "fastest" horse win. Of course you can say that the horse that reaches the wire first IS the "fastest," but a very tiring surface may well take more out of a horse that runs hard early. I was very much in favor of synthetic surfaces when it just appeared that tracks either couldn't, or wouldn't, make dirt surfaces safe. But nobody realized that at least some synthetic surfaces seem to be drastically changing "the game." The developers didn't market them by saying "They're safer, and by the way they're so deep and tiring that many of your most popular and expensive breeding lines will be worthless on them." And as for saying "Well, they shouldn't have bought those horses," I don't think anyone could have predicted how Poly was going to play at Del Mar. Apparently it CAN provide a surface which plays more like dirt--so why not do it, at least for now?

there was another track early this year that they said speed was doomed--right before a 3 yo won gate to wire in a derby prep.

it would be nice if the tracks exhibited no bias, regardless of style of running-and may the best horse win.

as for poly, i've been leery of the change (to put it mildly) and also feel that a good dirt surface would be the way to go...but times are changing.

but if zayat is the only one complaining-and thus far it seems he is--well, he's leaving so that's that. i think the track super handled the disagreement poorly, but as for changing the track due to one owner-that's another story.

del mar is still so early in the going, patience is called for-give every one a little time to figure it out. i think zayat may have jumped the gun, altho no doubt he felt he had a tremendous reason to be upset. you can't please everyone, that remains true!

[Riot]

I dont recall Baffert complaining about the Cushion track, just the polytrack, which according to its makers "requires no maintenance"

To be fair, the manufacturers state it requires less or minimal maintenance compared to dirt or turf, I've never seen the mfg. call it, "no" maintenance. For example, they pick manure off it after every race, so it doesn't get mixed in.

I wonder why Arlington poly doesn't have these complaints? It can go from 60 degrees and dry in the morning, to 80 and hot/humid afternoon in Chicago.

Kentucky (regarding Turfway and Keeneland) is terribly foggy and humid in the morning, and hot and dry (or moist) in the afternoon - quite extreme weather during a summer day. In the winter Turfway only lost 4 days this year, I believe (during the ice storm, when you couldn't walk out of your barn, there was an inch of ice on the ground). KEE certainly had enough 2-year-olds go sub-11 seconds on the poly at the training sales.

It's slightly different, it's here, it's not going anywhere.

In the current Thoroughbred Times, regarding current Polytrack Arlington meet through July 15th:

Fatal breakdowns down from 2006: 17 2007: 5
Average daily on track handle: up 23.5%
All source wagering: up 26.2%
Average daily attendance: up from 2006: 7,169 to 2007: 8,619
Average number starters per race: up from 2006: 7.2 to 2007: 8.5

Less fatal breakdowns, handle up, all wagering up, attendance up, field size up ... it's a bad thing for racing?

[Riot]

Nobody knew how the synthetic surfaces would playout i.e. kind to plodders and a disadvantage to speed during the yearling sales of 2006

.

Does anybody have figures on Kee, Turf, Arlington, or even first days of Del Mar, regarding what percentage of horses have won from front, stalking, closing? I've seen some published, can't recall where.

[Riot]

It's not just a couple of guys complaining. Believe that.

Who are they? TenPtMoveup said he talked to a person who worked horses for John Sherrifs.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Riot

.

Does anybody have figures on Kee, Turf, Arlington, or even first days of Del Mar, regarding what percentage of horses have won from front, stalking, closing? I've seen some published, can't recall where.

The last I saw from AP, it was about 35% closers, 25% stalkers, 20% front end and the rest were pressers.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

The last I saw from AP, it was about 35% closers, 25% stalkers, 20% front end and the rest were pressers.

AP Through July 22:

Closers- 33%
Stalkers 25%
Pressers: 17%
Speed: 25%

Winning Margin:

1/2 length or less: 30%
3/4-2: 34%
2 1/4- 4: 22%
4 1/2+ 14%

Outside: 54%
Inside: 46%

Chalk: 29%
3-1 or less: 48%
7-2 to 9-1: 34%
10-1 + 18%

Average Payoff
Poly: $15.00
Turf: $13.39

[ELA]

More on this story . . .

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87205.html

I see both sides of the fence on this. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think a good amount of the criticism is "crying" -- and that's not meant as criticism.

The bettor is used to, wants, is looking for, etc. -- a bias, pattern, trend, whatever you want to call it. Reliability is something that could be ideal, but it plays both ways. Regardless, does this make handicapping more difficult? It sure does. Of course. But we have to act, react, and adapt to that. It's not the same arguement that Baffert is making -- two different tracks -- nobody bets on "races in the morning" and if you can't see what the works are, mean, and are reflective of, etc., well that's another issue.

The trainer -- is looking for consistency. Sure, in an ideal world, that would be ideal. It's safe, reliable, etc. However, Baffert is taking this arguement to an extreme; or perhaps Zayat is. This is not taking the speed out of the track, or the game. It's a byproduct, not a goal. Cause and effect? Should there be tweaking? OK, but I think in the larger picture, that decision needs to be left to the experts -- or the closest ones to being an expert, and I don't think Baffert or Zayat fall into that camp.

The majority of the trainers and jocks I've spoke with are positive about the surface. Sure, there's a learning curve, a life-cycle, and change is inevitable -- liked, disliked, wanted, or not.

I think Baffert is distorting the real issue here. Talking about "taking the speed out" is somewhat narrow-minded. How does it affect him more than others? Because of the yearlings, 2yo's, etc. he bought? What about other trainers? It's a futile arguement.

The claims of the manufacturers about maintenence, ongoing costs, and everything else is also not the issue here. You can't unring a bell. That's more scapegoat type of excuses to distort or deflect the arguement as well. I don't think that saying "weather was neglected" or not taken into consideration, or anything of the like for that matter, justifies anything.

Eric

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ELA

More on this story . . .

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87205.html

I see both sides of the fence on this. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think a good amount of the criticism is "crying" -- and that's not meant as criticism.

The bettor is used to, wants, is looking for, etc. -- a bias, pattern, trend, whatever you want to call it. Reliability is something that could be ideal, but it plays both ways. Regardless, does this make handicapping more difficult? It sure does. Of course. But we have to act, react, and adapt to that. It's not the same arguement that Baffert is making -- two different tracks -- nobody bets on "races in the morning" and if you can't see what the works are, mean, and are reflective of, etc., well that's another issue.

The trainer -- is looking for consistency. Sure, in an ideal world, that would be ideal. It's safe, reliable, etc. However, Baffert is taking this arguement to an extreme; or perhaps Zayat is. This is not taking the speed out of the track, or the game. It's a byproduct, not a goal. Cause and effect? Should there be tweaking? OK, but I think in the larger picture, that decision needs to be left to the experts -- or the closest ones to being an expert, and I don't think Baffert or Zayat fall into that camp.

The majority of the trainers and jocks I've spoke with are positive about the surface. Sure, there's a learning curve, a life-cycle, and change is inevitable -- liked, disliked, wanted, or not.

I think Baffert is distorting the real issue here. Talking about "taking the speed out" is somewhat narrow-minded. How does it affect him more than others? Because of the yearlings, 2yo's, etc. he bought? What about other trainers? It's a futile arguement.

The claims of the manufacturers about maintenence, ongoing costs, and everything else is also not the issue here. You can't unring a bell. That's more scapegoat type of excuses to distort or deflect the arguement as well. I don't think that saying "weather was neglected" or not taken into consideration, or anything of the like for that matter, justifies anything.

Eric

Adjusting to Polytrack
By STEVE ANDERSEN
DEL MAR, Calif. - The first two weeks of racing on Del Mar's new Polytrack synthetic surface have left trainer Art Sherman baffled at times on the best way to prepare his horses.

He says the course he trains over in the morning is firmer than it is during the afternoon, when abundant sunshine makes the course more tiring. It has not been an easy transition for a trainer long-accustomed to racing on a speed-oriented conventional dirt track, and it has forced him to change his training style.

"I let them gallop and open up in the last part," he said, referring to a quicker finish during morning exercise. "I'm putting more miles in them. I'm training hard. I'm trying to adapt in how I train. It's been a long process.

"A couple of horses that ran well at Hollywood Park, I thought they'd run well and they staggered in."

Put simply, Sherman wishes the course played quicker, but realizes that is unlikely to occur.

"I've had a couple of different issues," Sherman said. "I think we have two different tracks from the morning to the afternoon. I wish they could tighten it down. If they could tighten it down, that would be the way to go."

Sherman said one adjustment he has made is expecting slower times for workouts and races. He had two horses - All Thee B and Movie Fan - work six furlongs in 1:16.80 on Wednesday morning. On a conventional dirt track, or even a Cushion Track synthetic surface such as Hollywood Park's, that would be slow time, but the time did not concern Sherman.

"That was a decent work," he said. "They would have gone in 1:14 on a different surface. You have to adjust."

Friday, Sherman starts Mike's Trippin in the eighth race, a maiden claimer over 5 1/2 furlongs. Mike's Trippin, winless in six starts, has enough speed to be an early factor. How the 3-year-old will handle his first start on Polytrack is a mystery to Sherman.

Sherman is convinced that Mike's Trippin needs every advantage to win Friday. He fears the track is not conducive to front-runners, which will make it more difficult for Mike's Trippin to win despite the race's short distance.

The modest race is Mike's Trippin's first start as a gelding, according to Sherman, who took the precaution of shipping the 3-year-old from Hollywood Park to Del Mar last week to give him a few extra days of training on Polytrack.

"He's a speed horse," Sherman said. "Maybe by the last race, the track might tighten up."
---------------

Riot, u asked what others? Shirreffs and Sherman to name a couple who have come forward in the past day. As I said, if u know anyone that works around there or anyone that knows anyone, ask. U will come to realize there are others.

[10 pnt move up]

In the end the market will tell us if its acceptable to both horsemen and the player, if no one runs and even worse if no one plays then you will see changes.

[letswastemoney]

just train the horses differently

[The Bid]

If all you need to do is train them to be slow maybe Elliot Walden will get back into training

[sumitas]

It's pointless to resist the change to ploy. I'm looking forward to the NY tracks converting as well as all the others.

[Riot]

"I let them gallop and open up in the last part," he said, referring to a quicker finish during morning exercise. "I'm putting more miles in them. I'm training hard. I'm trying to adapt in how I train. It's been a long process.

A quote in the TB Times from Frank Kirby, ITHA president, "At first, it seemed some of my horses were getting a little tired, so I started training them a little harder. Now, I don't know if you have to train them a little harder. I'm training pretty much the way I always did. The horses who like it, like it; the ones who don't like it, that's another story."

From an exercise-physiology standpoint, btw, it's known that if too many miles are added to a horse in training, it can reduce it's speed.

I think this "new surface" challenge will showcase trainers who are more adept at identifying an individual animals assets and weaknesses, and training an individual animal to top potential. Some animals get by on innate ability, some are brought to new heights beyond expectation due to astute training.

As ArlJim said, someone is winning these races

Sherman is convinced that Mike's Trippin needs every advantage to win Friday. He fears the track is not conducive to front-runners, which will make it more difficult for Mike's Trippin to win despite the race's short distance.

"Needing every advantage" for a win implies to me a horse that isn't a good bet for that win in that race. I think that's less of a track problem (although a muddy track has waylaid many a race-day expectation), than a "horse for the course" or race selection problem.

A horse that could fly for 7 furlongs over a hard, fast track may only be able to reproduce a similar performance over 6 or 6 1/2 without the assistance of the faster track.

Dirt and turf tracks vary widely between different race tracks, all have their own reputations - and as handicappers, we all know that. Some tracks historically have favored front-runners, and allowed them to carry their speed farther than at other tracks, some tracks favor stalkers or even closers.

I think we all know what style California historically is known for That's why I'm very interested in seeing what CA horses get on the Derby prep race trail next year - how will they do?

So it doesn't surprise me that some trainers will have some horses that don't do as well on this surface as on another, or on cushion vs. poly, on Keeneland poly vs Arlington, etc. They may have to learn how to spot their horses a bit differently to give the horse the optimal chance to perform to it's best level.

Riot, u asked what others? Shirreffs and Sherman to name a couple who have come forward in the past day. As I said, if u know anyone that works around there or anyone that knows anyone, ask. U will come to realize there are others

That's why I'm asking who they are. I would indeed like to hear from other trainers that feel this way, details regarding how their horses are doing in training vs. race, etc. But I can't presume what they number.

[The Bid]

Slow horseracing is a lot of fun. I enjoy watching good pacers cover the mile in the same time as thoroughbreds.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by GBBob

AP Through July 22:

Closers- 33%
Stalkers 25%
Pressers: 17%
Speed: 25%

Winning Margin:

1/2 length or less: 30%
3/4-2: 34%
2 1/4- 4: 22%
4 1/2+ 14%

Outside: 54%
Inside: 46%

Chalk: 29%
3-1 or less: 48%
7-2 to 9-1: 34%
10-1 + 18%

Average Payoff
Poly: $15.00
Turf: $13.39

bob, where did you get this info?

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

bob, where did you get this info?

No where special....a program from Arlington last Thursday..Page 17