Borel is Fired Up

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Lawyer Ron is also a year older than SS. Also this was SS first race since May. I think you can expect more from SS in the future and I would imagine that LR will digress a little from his great performance in the Whitney.

He is a year older but isn't Street Sense planning to take on all comers, including Lawyer Ron in a few months in the Classic? I just wonder how much more you will see from Street Sense, he always looks the same to me which is quite good, but not overpowering. He should have handed that field a Bernardini style thrashing. Instead, all I saw was that he managed to get up in time to beat CP West.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

He is a year older but isn't Street Sense planning to take on all comers, including Lawyer Ron in a few months in the Classic? I just wonder how much more you will see from Street Sense, he always looks the same to me which is quite good, but not overpowering. He should have handed that field a Bernardini style thrashing. Instead, all I saw was that he managed to get up in time to beat CP West.

I thought it was a good performance for being off 71 days. I feel that this time of year, 3 year olds have more room to improve than 4 year olds. I think that LR has peaked and will start to level off. I think SS will be able to iimprove more and be primed for his best for BCC day.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

He should have handed that field a Bernardini style thrashing. Instead, all I saw was that he managed to get up in time to beat CP West.

I doubt Nafzger had him cranked up, first off layoff, and he uses preps for just that. He's always said the goal is the Classic after the Derby.

I was wondering why they were all so very happy and excited after the win. I figure it was because they didn't expect the win - they just wanted him to run well (maybe top three), and get this prep under his belt. That he won on class and natural ability alone, maybe surprised them a bit and reinforced how good they think this horse is, that he could easily beat those at 80% or so.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You are right. But before Saturday, would you have included Lawyer Ron in possible Classic contenders. He ran out of this world big, almost unbelievable.

In the past in my opinion Nafzger hasn't had Street Sense fully cranked in his preps for a big race. We have seen how he performs in the biggies, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

well yes I considered Lawyer Ron a potential classic contender before Saturday. why not? he has improved in every start for Pletcher and its up for grabs. The race Saturday showed another dimension entirely.

I think Street Sense has a lot more to worry about than Lawyer Ron though. I don't know who is going to the Travers but I don't think its a gimme for him.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

well yes I considered Lawyer Ron a potential classic contender before Saturday. why not? he has improved in every start for Pletcher and its up for grabs. The race Saturday showed another dimension entirely.

I think Street Sense has a lot more to worry about than Lawyer Ron though. I don't know who is going to the Travers but I don't think its a gimme for him.

Nafzger is at his best when he sets a goal for his horse and points to a specific race and trains up to it, see BC Juvenille 2006 and KY Derby 2007. He laid out pinpoint plans to get the horse there and have him ready to win. He won both.

He freely admitted he had no real plan after the Derby. No surprise that SS got nosed out. The question is, what is the long term goal of Nafzger for SS? Is it the Travers or the BC Classic. I argue that it is both. Old school guys like Nafzger view the Travers as the fourth jewel in the Triple Crown. He said leading up to the Jim Dandy, he didnt care if SS lost, he just needed to get sharper off the long lay off. It wasn't overly impressive, but the horse did what was necessary to win the race, which in the end, that was all the trainer was looking for.

Next stop will be the Travers, maybe a race vs olders in late Sept/early Oct and then train up to the BC Classic. With Nafzger's precise schedule and track record for having his horses ready for the spot that is the ultimate destination (Derby, BC Juvy) combined with the fact that SS is bound to improve off the Dandy, even more so third off the layoff (like the Derby) in a prep for the BCC or the BCC itself, along with a natural maturing horse late in a three year old campaign, I'm not sure how you can be overly disappointed in SS's performance in the Dandy.

Crushing fields did nothing to help Bernardini in the BCC last year, he got a look in the eye and spit the bit. Street Sense will go into the BCC well tested and well prepared.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Nafzger is at his best when he sets a goal for his horse and points to a specific race and trains up to it, see BC Juvenille 2006 and KY Derby 2007. He laid out pinpoint plans to get the horse there and have him ready to win. He won both.

He freely admitted he had no real plan after the Derby. No surprise that SS got nosed out. The question is, what is the long term goal of Nafzger for SS? Is it the Travers or the BC Classic. I argue that it is both. Old school guys like Nafzger view the Travers as the fourth jewel in the Triple Crown. He said leading up to the Jim Dandy, he didnt care if SS lost, he just needed to get sharper off the long lay off. It wasn't overly impressive, but the horse did what was necessary to win the race, which in the end, that was all the trainer was looking for.

Next stop will be the Travers, maybe a race vs olders in late Sept/early Oct and then train up to the BC Classic. With Nafzger's precise schedule and track record for having his horses ready for the spot that is the ultimate destination (Derby, BC Juvy) combined with the fact that SS is bound to improve off the Dandy, even more so third off the layoff (like the Derby) in a prep for the BCC or the BCC itself, along with a natural maturing horse late in a three year old campaign, I'm not sure how you can be overly disappointed in SS's performance in the Dandy.

Crushing fields did nothing to help Bernardini in the BCC last year, he got a look in the eye and spit the bit. Street Sense will go into the BCC well tested and well prepared.

you are right on about Nafzger and how he maps out a plan to have the horse peak on the big days. Also you have listed two very big days that SS has delivered on already, the BCJ and the Derby. I look at it this way, what else is there to prove with the horse? does he really need the classic to prove he is an elite horse? no. But the rest of the field in the classic will.

I'm not convinced about how much more improvement we're going to see from him. He is the first horse to carry over his winning form from the juvenile to the derby. What a huge step it would be to keep it going through the fall and win the classic. Totally unprecedented. When you talk about a naturally improving 3yo I think more about a horse that is only now coming into his peak form, for the first time. Not about a horse who at two ran the fastest juvenile ever.

we'll see how it turns out, count me as skeptical of him reaching new heights.

I disagree about Bernardini last year. No shame in how he ran in the classic, I wouldn't call it spitting the bit. He lost to an extraordinary horse, a better horse, but his race in the classic was exceptional.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't think it's going to be a gimme either, but who is out there that could give him a run? I'm not sold on Lawyer Ron, don't ask me why. That was just too good a performance, by a good, but not that good a horse. Maybe Pletcher has moved him up that much, but something stinks in that race.

As I stated in the Lawyer Ron time thread, they ran a freak-out race. It happens, and I agree they won't run back to it.

He's a very good horse, but not all time good as the time/figure would indicate.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give Pletcher camp credit, because they have seemed to fix the rankness problem Lawyer Ron had last year. Maybe the fact he's getting stronger jocks on him, or someone in the Pletcher camp deserves a big raise.

Same thing I noticed... huge improvement in that regard.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give Pletcher camp credit, because they have seemed to fix the rankness problem Lawyer Ron had last year. Maybe the fact he's getting stronger jocks on him, or someone in the Pletcher camp deserves a big raise.

He almost pulled P Val out of the saddle in the BCC last year throwing his head around, and PVal is one STRONG dude. Training him in draw reins was genius...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't think it's going to be a gimme either, but who is out there that could give him a run? I'm not sold on Lawyer Ron, don't ask me why. That was just too good a performance, by a good, but not that good a horse. Maybe Pletcher has moved him up that much, but something stinks in that race.

maybe, but what is it that stinks? it looks honest in all respects. the only thing that will answer that question is more races.

as far as who could beat Street Sense? I don't know yet, I'll tell you the day before the Travers, how's that?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

maybe, but what is it that stinks? it looks honest in all respects. the only thing that will answer that question is more races.

as far as who could beat Street Sense? I don't know yet, I'll tell you the day before the Travers, how's that?

LOL... why say you know Street Sense could get beat when you don't even know which horses are in the field?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

LOL... why say you know Street Sense could get beat when you don't even know which horses are in the field?

because obvious horses lose all the time.

because Street Sense has been beaten before.

because I don't see him moving forward as a 3yo.

because I know that other 3yo's are developing/improving.

therefore, depending on who shows up in the Travers I do think he is elligible to get beat at miniscule odds.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Circumstances can beat a superior horse.

Lawyer Ron is one race removed from losing to Gottcha Gold at 1/9 odds.

Gottcha Gold was one of six wire-to-wire winners from 8 dirt races that day at Monmouth. The other two pacesetters finished 2nd and 3rd, one of which at 43/1 odds. Several of the wire-to-wire winners that day didn't exactly figure...one of them won by 6 blowout lengths at 30/1 odds after setting a fast pace.

Now, Lawyer Ron ran a 108 Beyer figure against the grain of the powerful speed bias when defeated at MTH last out. It's hard to argue that a losing effort to Gottcha Gold was an indentical performance to winning the Whitney in track record time, however....it's not so hard to argue that a horse capable of running a 108 Beyer against the teeth of a strong speed bias, is very capable of "improving" to a 115 in a truly and fairly run race.

Street Sense had another lovely inside-out trip in the Jim Dandy, but he didn't get the wicked pace he needs to produce his best form...and thus was unable to make that spectacular far turn move that single handedly can break open a race that is run with a crazy fast pace (as the BC Juvie, Derby, and Preakness all happened to be run.) The 2nd place horse in the Dandy is elidgible for N1X alw races, and the terrible Cowtown Cat...was reasonably competitive in that race.

For Street Sense to win the Breeders Cup Classic, he's going to need another one of those scorching fast paces coupled with another rail skimming ride from Borel.

I would prefer Lawyer Ron's chances of those two at this stage. However, there are three capable horses running in the Haskell, and I would not be surprised at all if something really steps up and runs a career top in that race, of the big three.

[cmorioles]

I think it is beyond silly to say Street Sense needs to stay on the rail. I also don't think he needs a great setup to beat Lawyer Ron going 10f, just an average one.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What stinks? Come on man. He ran Ghostzapper fast in the race. All of the sudden midway through his 4 year old year he has a breakthrough like that? And Wanderin Boy, where did his super fast race come from? It just seems fishy to me. I find it hard to believe either horse has a race like that in them. I could be wrong, but head to head I'll take Street Sense over Lawyer Ron if they meet up in the Classic.

I know he ran a fast race, his best race, it happens. I think you may be missing the big picture. This didn't happen overnight for Lawyer Ron. In the past it was not uncommon for horses to come into their own at 4.

For the classic, if they both do make it, at this point I would definetely go with Lawyer Ron headsup. I have this gut feeling though that Street Sense won't make it.