1st week of Del Mar/Poly

[Honu]

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best . I would stay away from the speed trainers like Baffert and Headley and some of those other guys, their horses are going to have to be a hell of alot fitter to be competetitive on this surface .

[onebadbeast]

the good news is they have fixed the horse breakdown problem. bad news is, now the people are breaking down.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by onebadbeast

the good news is they have fixed the horse breakdown problem. bad news is, now the people are breaking down.

[whodey17]

The kickback at Del Mar fails in comparision to the kickback at Turfway during their winter/spring meet.

I have been watching races on Polytrack and Cushion track all year. Like most people on here have said, the horse you select has got to be in shape. You also need a horse that sustains his/her speed throughout the entire race. Look for horses who have consistance works over the surface. Don't look for a bullet and then a work just to stretch the horses legs. It also appears than favorites win less often on a synthetic track than they do on a dirt track. Like Honu said, stay away from the speed trainers. I also ignore the 2nd and 3rd off layoff angle as well. I want a horse who has been consistanly racing or training.

I still struggle at times with the surface, but I feel as if I am getting better at capping the synthetic tracks.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Honu

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best . I would stay away from the speed trainers like Baffert and Headley and some of those other guys, their horses are going to have to be a hell of alot fitter to be competetitive on this surface .

I have been looking at the horses cutting back in distance (regardless if they appear to be just a router) and dropping in class.

I will watch the 12 second furlongs. Thanks

[King Glorious]

One thing they were saying on TVG that I thought was some good info was about horses coming in rested being at a big disadvantage. There used to be a thing where some trainers would kind of back off at the end of Hollywood to gear up for Del Mar but these horses are coming up short it seems this year.

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing they were saying on TVG that I thought was some good info was about horses coming in rested being at a big disadvantage. There used to be a thing where some trainers would kind of back off at the end of Hollywood to gear up for Del Mar but these horses are coming up short it seems this year.

Yes I have noticed that also. That and horses need works over the track. Hey J, have you noticed horses being more tired than you thought they should be after working on it for the first few times?

[Danzig]

good luck figuring this out...i struggled at arlington, but then again, had never played it before. did manage one super all day--shame tho it wasn't the biggie--paid over 12k for the dime super. i, uh...well, i hit the one that only paid a couple hundred.

[2Hot4TV]

I'm guessing that the horses don't have a good feel and don't really get a good hold of the poly and use more stablizing muscles to keep balance and thus come up empty. Then again the rail in the paddock is as close as I get to a race horse.

[SlewsMyHero]

It appears to me that the sprints are pretty fair, but the routes are being dominated by closers. It doesn't seem to matter how fast or slow they go up front, case in point, a classy runner like Buzzards Bay runs a comfortable 1/2 in :49.2 and stops at the top of the stretch. Conditioning is very important on this surface.

[JJP]

They've got a real kickback problem. Watch the AP races and you see very little. At Dmr, those horses and riders behind the leaders have to be choking to death.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

It appears to me that the sprints are pretty fair, but the routes are being dominated by closers. It doesn't seem to matter how fast or slow they go up front, case in point, a classy runner like Buzzards Bay runs a comfortable 1/2 in :49.2 and stops at the top of the stretch.

I agree with you. Sprint races play more fairly, but the further they go, the more the advantage is with the off-the-pace plodders...and the more ugly the race is to watch.

I agree about Buzzards Bay as well...he was just loping through a VERY easy half mile through slow fractions....and he finished up like a sniper shot him at the top of the stretch.

I believe that the top two finishers came from last and 2nd to last, into the teeth of that 49 and change rate'em up pace.

I can only imagine what the Pacific Classic will look like. I'd honestly like to see a top class steeplechase horse, who's in very good form, run in a race like the PAC Classic.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

Yes I have noticed that also. That and horses need works over the track. Hey J, have you noticed horses being more tired than you thought they should be after working on it for the first few times?

Some of them are getting tired , the one's who arent quit ready to run and the fatter ones , which is the way its supposed to be , I like the fact that the horses are going to have to be fitter to run on it , less of a chance of them getting hurt if they are 100% fit.

[jpops757]

One of my early take , is be aware of the trainers that train the fitness in and the ones that race the fittness into. Quick retun to the races almost always a positive, even wit a lackluster previous performance. We always use the term a prep race for a larger stake race. I think the lower tier horses are using the same theory and using rices to get the fitness. Of course one week is a short sample. The real trends will be evident after the fact. Above all the track appears to be very fair even with some of the monster pays. Most of the bigpaying horses can be identified in the form afterward if we were smart enough to find it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Honu

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best .

If a horse that's going beyond a mile over this surface, even a top class horse, is running 12 for each furlong, he's going way too fast and will bite the dust through the lane.

As an example, just take a look at the talentless April claimer Sun Boat, in his victory in the 8.5 furlong Grade 2 San Diego Stakes on Saturday.

After a quarter mile he was dead last, 10 lengths off of a 24.54 first quarter. So, basically, he ran his first quarter in the 26's. A couple of 13 and small change 1/8ths to start. From there he picked it up and ran a steady diet of eights in the mid-to-high 12's.

Had a horse in the San Diego ran 12 flat eights throughout the entire running of the race, he'd have won by about 20 lengths.