Fishy Pick Six doings at DMR

[whodey17]

Ateam - certainly does raise some eyebrows. Maybe the person(s) who singled the horse in Leg A had a connection to the horse so they had to single him. It was just a $16 ticket. Either good handicapping or luck or both.

[Split Rock]

I've played this game for the better half of my life and I've never heard of someone singling a 60-1 shot and having it win, much less, having it be one of four straight singles and then hitting the pick 6.

I would like to know the percentages of that happening. Virtually impossible for me to believe.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Maybe the person(s) who singled the horse in Leg A had a connection to the horse so they had to single him. It was just a $16 ticket.

If that explains the 65/1 shot he singled, he still needed to connect with three more singles in the next three races....a proposition that was offering 426/1 odds on a parlay.

But yeah, just the concept of singling a 65/1 shot in leg 1 of a P6 is virtually unheard of.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If that explains the 65/1 shot he singled, he still needed to connect with three more singles in the next three races....a proposition that was offering 426/1 odds on a parlay.

But yeah, just the concept of singling a 65/1 shot in leg 1 of a P6 is virtually unheard of.

That horse (the 65/1 shot) was out of the 1st race of the pick six sequence on the huge carryover day at Hollywood. Exhale!!! He didn't run horrible and shouldn't have been 65/1. But, I agree someone got lucky here.

[brianwspencer]

Just two cents to think about (at least from my optimistic perspective) is that we're using the 65-1 number as the standard.

If this were a player who placed their pick-6 wager before the pools opened, say a bet from a bettor who wasn't actively wagering on each race and just handicapped it first and placed it -- the morning line odds and the final odds were:

20-1 -- off at 65-1
5-1 -- off at 8-1
3-1 -- off at 2-1
8-1 -- off at 14-1

While the early singling still looks fishy, it doesn't look quite as crazy when you look at the ML odds of the horses. This player didn't necessarily single a 65-1 shot, he or she may have singled what they thought was a 20-1 shot.

If that matters....

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Just two cents to think about (at least from my optimistic perspective) is that we're using the 65-1 number as the standard.

If this were a player who placed their pick-6 wager before the pools opened, say a bet from a bettor who wasn't actively wagering on each race and just handicapped it first and placed it -- the morning line odds and the final odds were:

20-1 -- off at 65-1
5-1 -- off at 8-1
3-1 -- off at 2-1
8-1 -- off at 14-1

While the early singling still looks fishy, it doesn't look quite as crazy when you look at the ML odds of the horses. This player didn't necessarily single a 65-1 shot, he or she may have singled what they thought was a 20-1 shot.

If that matters....

This explanation makes it sound less suspicious. I thought, after the Breeders' Cup Pick 6 fix, that it was near impossible to manipulate the Pick 6 wagers. Anyone know if all venues made the security repairs?

[Unstable]

If the winner did legimately place this bet, he or she is probably kicking him or herself for not playing the parlay bet rather than the Pick 6, seeing as how it paid over eight times as much!

Here's the link to the Brad Free article:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/86864.html