Hollywood Gold Cup

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

I'm not knocking his ability, quite the opposite. But the breeders' cup (and lets face it unless he performs well there he can forget HOY) isn't in California, and the trainer admits the horse does not ship well, and cannot settle outside of his familiar environment...that is a serious problem because it makes it very difficult to showcase his talent and ability. And california tracks are different than east coast tracks so there will always be individauls who will call him a specialist...not that he is or isn't. If he traveled well then he could answer that question--that is all I am trying to say.

Paisjpq, I might agree with you except for the fact that Lava Man has done so well on the grass. You can hardly call a horse a one-track specialist if he is dominating over two totally different surfaces. Moving back and forth between dirt and grass is way more different than moving between different dirts. IMO, Lava Man has already passed all the versatility questions. Shipping successfully isn't nearly as impressive as winning Grade I's on both dirt and grass.

I'm not even sure Lava Man has to go to the BCC to win HOY. They could take the Mineshaft route and bypass it entirely. (they could find SOMETHING that needs a couple of months of rest to heal.) If Lava Man adds the Pacific Classic to his undefeated year and then goes to the sidelines, it would not be easy for another horse to win HOY. I can't imagine any horse besides Bernardini, Flower Alley, Invasor and perhaps Jazil having a shot. And for any of those horses to have a chance, he would have to win everything from here out including the BCC.

--Dunbar

[Slewbopper]

I would send him to Kentucky right now. Let him settle in for two months, run him in a 1 1/8 grass or dirt race in mid to late Sept and then have him fresh for the BCC.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Paisjpq, I might agree with you except for the fact that Lava Man has done so well on the grass. You can hardly call a horse a one-track specialist if he is dominating over two totally different surfaces. Moving back and forth between dirt and grass is way more different than moving between different dirts. IMO, Lava Man has already passed all the versatility questions. Shipping successfully isn't nearly as impressive as winning Grade I's on both dirt and grass.

I'm not even sure Lava Man has to go to the BCC to win HOY. They could take the Mineshaft route and bypass it entirely. (they could find SOMETHING that needs a couple of months of rest to heal.) If Lava Man adds the Pacific Classic to his undefeated year and then goes to the sidelines, it would not be easy for another horse to win HOY. I can't imagine any horse besides Bernardini, Flower Alley, Invasor and perhaps Jazil having a shot. And for any of those horses to have a chance, he would have to win everything from here out including the BCC.

--Dunbar

you make a good point about the grass; and let me restate that I am not knocking Lava Man at all, I admire what he has done. And I understand horses that will not ship and perform well--I own one, and trust me nothing is more frustrating.
Here's the thing, Mineshaft had the power and prestiege of Lane's End/Will Farish under him (while that shouldn't count I think we are not niaive enough to say that it doesn't). Doug O'Neill is a smaller trainer (Iknow he leads Cali.) and STD is a smaller racing stable. I know I'm going to get slammed for the next one--Doug O'Neill has had medication positives. Whether he has done anything wrong or not that cloud exists over his runners.
This game, like the game of life is usually about what have you done for me right now. If he wins the next race and goes to the farm, I think they will have made the right decision fo the horse, but I don't think that he will have HOY in the bag by a long shot.
Invasor, has one 7 of 8 so far lifetime and continues to excell. Bernardini is an incredible horse who may do big things this fall. Flower Alley has big connections and a strong resume, plus he is just getting into his campaign. If he wins the races TP has mapped out for him he's right there.
I repectfully disagree that Lava Man can skip the BCC. It is really the only time all year the great horses compete directly with one another and that is why the outcome has so much bearing on the awards.