Thoughts from a Novice Handicapper, Volume 2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

1) Know what wagers you are best at and stick to them. I brought a small amount of money to wager, as husband and I are pretty broke right now, and had lost it all by race 7 because I tried some trifectas. I need to stick to wins and exactas at this point. I'm better at those.

2)Always box your exacta. Because if you don't, that horse that has been an "also-ran" for the first 8 races of his career will choose to step it up and become a "ran."

3)Leave enough money for the last races. After losing what I was willing to lose, I sat out the last three races, with some money still in pocket, because I decided I wasn't going to make a bad day worse. And then watched as the horses I'd mentally boxed for an exacta won in the 8th race, the winner I'd picked for the 9th won (I tossed the Capote horse after the jockey switch) and, most heartbreaking, the exacta I'd picked came in in the 10th race, with the horse that won coming in at 17-1.

4)It is not at all satisfying to think, "I found a 17-1 long shot" when you didn't bet on said 17-1 long shot.

G/R,

All really good responses and insights to your day, or any day, at the track.. A few thoughts..

Re: 1. -- I've always felt that once you become a regular horseplayer that sticking to what has led to your biggest success should be your "meat and potato" wagering strategy.. For me, for years, it was exacta betting. It's not so much about being able to get a handle on the "right horses" as it is about confidence in your decision(s).

Re 2. -- Always box, but box with a weighted approach. If you love a certain horse at a square price and think a bomb could sneak into the exacta, there's no need to have them weighed equally in your wagers. If you love the "1" horse, a 1 (4-1), 2 (3-1), 3 (8-1), 4 (16-1) $2 four horse exacta box at $24 is better apportioned out boxing the 1-2-3-4 for a $1 ($12) and keying the 1 over the 2-3-4 for $4 ($12). Now when your 1 wins and your 2-3-4 come 2nd you've got a total of a $5 exacta. If the 1 comes behind the 2, 3 or 4 you've still got it covered, and if the 2-3-4 somehow hook up you've got a big hit.

There's no reason to spend 12 $2 increments, weighing every combination equally, when you believe the "1" is the most likely winner... Under the box scenario, you've given all 12 combos an 8% chance of coming in when your handicapping suggests to you that there is a far great likelihood than 8% that the 1 wins the race... By weighting the plays, you've apportioned 50% of your race investment on the 1 on top, 25% on the 1 second, and 25% on the 1 out of the exacta with your other horses 1st-2nd...

Re 3. -- Much like weighing exactas, weigh the races. Your budget should be split into "prime plays" (races where you have a TRUE opinion, a good feel) and "action plays" (races where you have a far less certainty of outcome but want action because you're at the track and it's what you're there for..). I've heard 66%-33% splits for "prime-action" budgets, 80-20, etc.. Your call. But by having a certain amount set aside for races you just don't "expect to win", you'll be certain to have money at the end of the day for a prime play that you absolutely "came there" to bet.

Re 4. -- See above.. "Action" budget dough is specifically for those plunges on 17-1 overlays.. Now when you spot something like that, you won't let it run without you because you don't have to worry that if it was a bad hunch it has cut deply into your bankroll. You have a bankroll for this kind of play which gives you the confidence to invest in 17-1 shots. Remember that with a 17-1 paying $36, you can be wrong 17 times, right once and break even... Be right twice and you've doubled your money...

Just a few thoughts about how I've dealt with those same issues developing as a horseplayer...

[2 Dollar Bill]

All very good stuff everyone has said. Just remember one think its ok to pass on a race and get ready for some value in another race. I never used to bet Daily Doubles... (thinking... HEY I have to pick TWO winners in a row) but I have found betting Daily Doubles can be very money making... Usually one of the bets is a fav. and if you find a nice 8-1 in the other race you can cash a nice ticket. Most people hammer both favs. in both races and want a $12.00 DD...[go figure]

Another thing to remember Years ago when Atlantic City had a FULL meet, I used to drive down from philly and the guy I would go with & before leaving the car He would put a Dollar Bill in the ashtray... Yes I had to ask.. ""why you doing that "".. and his answer was ...."" So we have the (dollar) toll for the way home on the expressway.."" .. See you allways have to think about the way HOME from the track..... L O L !!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ive found that many trials come down to a non specific angle. if you happen on to the right one at the right time and fire , it can make a a pos roi..but the waiting is maddening...many books say that if your intent is to win 100.bucks and you achieve it in the first race ..you should quit..my contention is you fire at the next good value with the houses money..and if you should win again take a allowance for yourself back to the fund....for me playing and winning 2 races out of 10..is not good..but long range is the real play...value is not a horse with a stamp on it...it could be a chalk 6/5 that you know will win vs these..and using him as a key in pick 3s ext thats how value is created....just my oppinion...hooves

[SentToStud]

These things I have learned....

1. If there is a low-priced favorite in the race that looks worthy of its odds, it most likely is. Don't fight it. Pass the race. In races like this, you cannot beat the takeout.

2. Your best (I'd say only) single-race opportunities are in races where you believe there is a false favorite, especially if you expect that favorite to be out of the exacta or/and trifecta. These are your best single-race bet opportunities.

3. KAsept is dead-on about "Pressing" on the horse you like the best. Having said that, when betting exactas, avoid betting combinations that will "get you even" for a race. In the long run, you are better off using those $$'s on more profitable wagers.

4. Do avoid place/show wagering. There is little sense in spending more money on a race in the hope of getting some of your money back. As with the above, keep those $$'s in your pocket and use it on a more profitable wager later. In other words, a Win/Place wager is not one bet. Look at them separately. Betting to place? No way is betting to break even, or make/lose a little money on a race a winning strategy.

5. When betting to win, you must press your advantage when given the opportunity. If you think a horse's fair odds are 3-1 and you are willing to bet it at 5-1, you need to bet more as the odds increase.... i.e., $10 @ 5-1, $12 @ 6-1, $15 @ 10-1.

This runs counter to some popular thought that longer priced bets should be considered as "action" plays and not "prime" wagers and somehow are only worthy of nominal wagers. I understand but do not ascribe to that strategy as I see it more as a "Bankroll Preservation" tactic as compared to a winning strategy.

Thank you for sharing your experiences. I am most certainly at least distantly related to the muttering fellow on the train.

Thanks again.

Good luck!!

[GenuineRisk]

Awww... who gave this thread a 5-star rating? You guys are so sweet...

And thank you for the responses and advice-- it's AWESOME. Please keep it coming. I'm going to save them all for future reference.

And hey, a bad day at Belmont is still usually a lot more fun than a good day most anywhere else.

[Buffymommy]

This thread is such a nice read. Glad to know I am not the only one out there who has used up the gambling money before the last race is over!

And 2 Dollar Bill, I too have put the $$$ for the turnpike in the ashtray so I don't spend it.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts Genuine. It is very insightful.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

This thread is such a nice read. Glad to know I am not the only one out there who has used up the gambling money before the last race is over!

And 2 Dollar Bill, I too have put the $$$ for the turnpike in the ashtray so I don't spend it.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts Genuine. It is very insightful.

Its funny how we make sure we have $$$ to go home....LOL I remember one time searching under the seats, under the floor mats , Blocking traffic before we could ""throw"" the money in the toll bin... Never thinking to save a buck or two for the ride home...

[westcoastinvader]

My Dad (and Mom) always made sure we had money to buy a modest dinner out on the ride home from the track. Or perhaps a late night dinner if we were playing the trotters.

That was a big deal to 'em, perhaps cause they had their kid (and eventually kids) in tow.

I think we hit all the good eating spots on Route 8 between Cleveland and Akron.

I remember really enjoying going for midnight dinners at a family restaurant in Northfield after the trotters and pacers (which I NEVER bet these days).

I also remember fondly a place just outside of the old Ascot Park I posted about in another thread (that AGAIN no one seems to remember or care about!....... :-) ) On the corner of Bath Road and Route 8, just behind the Ascot back stretch, was "The Chickery Chick." We had dinner there after the final 8th race, or perhaps the 9th if it was a long card.

I think I had chicken at The Chickery Chick. If not, it seems like I should have!

Great Thread and topic.

I dont wager much anymore but when I do I usually play Daily Doubles or pick 3,s and occasional Pick 4.

When Im betting a daily double I usually look for a wagering opportunity where I love a median priced horse in one leg say 4-1 up and then also a requirment is that one half of the double be some pathetic non winners or maiden claimers full of 0-20 horses then I make the key My horse with All and wait for the Bomb to explode in the garbage race.

An example of this was a quarter horse night at evangeline downs while I was at the otb I just loved a horse in the first leg of the double he was 5-1 2nd choice in a 12 horse field . The second leg of the double was for maiden claimers going 350 yards and they all where absolutley horrible another 12 horse field . I loaded up $10.00 double my 5/1 shot with/ ALL in the second half . My choice in the first leg won easily , I told my friend 2 minutes before post for the second leg that I was sitting huge cause all the doubles where over $40.00 being the smallest but a 12 horse maiden quarter horse claiming , Ugh well needless to say the BOMBS went off in the second leg 35-1 wins like a champ and the double comes back $753.00 for a $2.00 wager . These are the types of things I look for at the track a big score then dont wager again for 4-6 months , I used to go everyday to wager and the grind got to me , Plus when I started announcing it was better than wagering to me , but good luck at learning its the best sport in the world.

[onebadbeast]

One Rule Is To Always Have Enough For The Last Race. I Cant Tell You How Many Times I Have Been Bailed Out With A Last Race Super! The Racing Gods Will Shine On You.