6/13: Belmont (Late P4)

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by philcski

Funny you mention that. Steve and I were discussing the merits of the wager last night on ATRAB, I think it's garbage.

What is your wagering strategy on it?

I agree, there are many days it isn't worth playing.. i.e. when there are short fields in the legs leading up to the feature/anchor leg.

When I do play, I usually go: single/single/single/(anywhere from 1 to 4 horses--usually just one or two in the last)..

Obviously, the value of the bet only comes into play if you reach the final leg. As I mentioned earlier, there are many times I've gotten to that last leg where I singled a horse who went off at even money or less, and the Grand Slam payout is $15 or higher to that horse. Meaning, he went from odds-on to a 6-1 payout or higher. I usually only make $10 to $20 bets so I catch the payout 5-10 times.

Of course, if I think the last leg is completely wide open, I may do the opposite and spread my way to the end.. But, if I'm spending more than $40, it's probably not worth it.

For today, as an example, I'd probably play something like this:

5/4/6/2,3 =$20 x 2= $40

(exton)/(caught Stealing)/(Love Abroad)/(Loconia, Silver Timber)


I'm playing against a few favorites (in early legs and the last) so the payout could be anywhere from $20-$60 per $2 bet. (assuming a favorite misses the board early in the sequence, and the favorite in the last goes down.)


The most interesting thing I find when I handicap this bet is that I'll play horses I KNOW aren't going to win, but I am pretty confident they'll hit the board.(in the first three legs)