6/13: Belmont (Late P4)

[Antitrust32]

why is Dubliner back so soon?

[zippyneedsawin]

Hey Steve, you ever think about putting out a Grand Slam bet? I know the payouts can range anywhere from $5 to $500. I've actually done pretty well pounding that bet.. I don't know how many times I've gotten a $20+ payout on a horse(in the last leg) that goes off at 4/5. In general, it's more of a grinder's bet I think.

[blackthroatedwind]

I hate French Transition in today's 7th race. I think he's the biggest trap of the meet. Good luck to those that take 4:5 on him.

[Kasept]

Several key scratches/changes today at BEL..

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

[docicu3]

Steve

Is there anyway Gwedda #1 improves enough to get past both Rondo and Holy Canyon in the 3rd today.

Seems like an odd place for Badgett Jr to get back in the game unless you look at the Woody Stevens as even worse.

Seems like this race is a bear...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Hey Steve, you ever think about putting out a Grand Slam bet? I know the payouts can range anywhere from $5 to $500. I've actually done pretty well pounding that bet.. I don't know how many times I've gotten a $20+ payout on a horse(in the last leg) that goes off at 4/5. In general, it's more of a grinder's bet I think.

Funny you mention that. Steve and I were discussing the merits of the wager last night on ATRAB, I think it's garbage.

What is your wagering strategy on it?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by philcski

Funny you mention that. Steve and I were discussing the merits of the wager last night on ATRAB, I think it's garbage.

What is your wagering strategy on it?

I agree, there are many days it isn't worth playing.. i.e. when there are short fields in the legs leading up to the feature/anchor leg.

When I do play, I usually go: single/single/single/(anywhere from 1 to 4 horses--usually just one or two in the last)..

Obviously, the value of the bet only comes into play if you reach the final leg. As I mentioned earlier, there are many times I've gotten to that last leg where I singled a horse who went off at even money or less, and the Grand Slam payout is $15 or higher to that horse. Meaning, he went from odds-on to a 6-1 payout or higher. I usually only make $10 to $20 bets so I catch the payout 5-10 times.

Of course, if I think the last leg is completely wide open, I may do the opposite and spread my way to the end.. But, if I'm spending more than $40, it's probably not worth it.

For today, as an example, I'd probably play something like this:

5/4/6/2,3 =$20 x 2= $40

(exton)/(caught Stealing)/(Love Abroad)/(Loconia, Silver Timber)


I'm playing against a few favorites (in early legs and the last) so the payout could be anywhere from $20-$60 per $2 bet. (assuming a favorite misses the board early in the sequence, and the favorite in the last goes down.)


The most interesting thing I find when I handicap this bet is that I'll play horses I KNOW aren't going to win, but I am pretty confident they'll hit the board.(in the first three legs)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I agree, there are many days it isn't worth playing.. i.e. when there are short fields in the legs leading up to the feature/anchor leg.

When I do play, I usually go: single/single/single/(anywhere from 1 to 4 horses--usually just one or two in the last)..

Obviously, the value of the bet only comes into play if you reach the final leg. As I mentioned earlier, there are many times I've gotten to that last leg where I singled a horse who went off at even money or less, and the Grand Slam payout is $15 or higher to that horse. Meaning, he went from odds-on to a 6-1 payout or higher. I usually only make $10 to $20 bets so I catch the payout 5-10 times.

Of course, if I think the last leg is completely wide open, I may do the opposite and spread my way to the end.. But, if I'm spending more than $40, it's probably not worth it.

For today, as an example, I'd probably play something like this:

5/4/6/2,3 =$20 x 2= $40

(exton)/(caught Stealing)/(Love Abroad)/(Loconia, Silver Timber)


I'm playing against a few favorites (in early legs and the last) so the payout could be anywhere from $20-$60 per $2 bet. (assuming a favorite misses the board early in the sequence, and the favorite in the last goes down.)


The most interesting thing I find when I handicap this bet is that I'll play horses I KNOW aren't going to win, but I am pretty confident they'll hit the board.(in the first three legs)

My beef with the bet is there is no additional value in selecting a 99-1 horse to hit the board vs. a 1/5. Some schmuck who uses 3 favorites who all finish 3rd vs. any "creative" selections get the same payoff...

I had a thought on how to improve the wager, and possibly make it more fun. Make it a real "Grand Slam":
Leg 1: Runner must finish EXACTLY 4th
Leg 2: Runner must finish EXACTLY 3rd
Leg 3: Runner must finish EXACTLY 2nd
Leg 4: Runner must Win

[Kasept]

Speed ruling at Big Sandy here after the two day break... Nothing coming back...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Speed ruling at Big Sandy here after the two day break... Nothing coming back...

What illogical result have we seen?

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Speed ruling at Big Sandy here after the two day break... Nothing coming back...

on the dirt the speed ruled today, good catch. those near the front did well on the turf too which must be quite hard now.