Tiago derby gallop out

[Derby73]

I can't understand why anyone thinks Tiago can win this race; well, outside of the fact that it's a horse race and anything can happen.

In his best race, Tiago ran 1 1/8 in 1:49 2/5. Assuming he can run another 3/8 in the time he ran the last 1/8 in that race, he runs a mile and half in 2:29 and a fraction. Using the same approach, Slew's Tizzy, who hasn't gone more than 1 1/16 doesn't look much better.

OTOH, Curlin can slow down in the last 5/16 versus his Preakness time and do 2:26 or close to it.

I know that's a simple analysis and I'm no expert, but I don't understand folks being excited about any horse's chances of beating Curlin with the exception of Hard Spun, and that's mild excitement. I will probably throw Prado in because of recurring Birdstone nightmares.

For what it's worth, Jay Cronley's picks on espn.com:

Curlin
Hard Spun
CP West
imawildandcrazyguy

Punch line from an old 'priest at the race track' joke: "Son, don't you know the difference between blessing a horse and giving it its last rites?"