Tiago derby gallop out

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

But he does not have to be right according to TG, Curlin almost assuredly will "Bounce" using their logic back to a slower number, same with Hard Spun, Tiago should only have to improve slightly using TG. It would not surprise me if he is their pick given the Bounce logic?

He is an 'exotic' use according to TG.

I think Curlin has to move back and both Slew's Tizzy and Tiago are horses that are going to move forward. How forward, I don't know, but I think the value is there on them to invest in the notion of one of them freaking....

[SundayStar]

to me, the "gallop out" is one of the most overrated handicapping angles. who cares what they do after the race is over?

but............ i do like tiago to hit the board

[Bobby Fischer]

After three strides past the wire I wouldn't get very hyped about what happens other than to view it as a positive sign that the horse wasn't falling apart.

[whodey17]

I agree that gallop outs are over analyzed unless it is during a workout. But Curlin should improve off of his Preakness race. I do not care what the TG people say, Curlin will run better in the Belmont than he did in the Preakness. Tiago is my pick to round out the trifecta. I like Rags to get 2nd. More than likely, I will key Curlin on top with Rags and Tiago with all.

[Derby73]

I can't understand why anyone thinks Tiago can win this race; well, outside of the fact that it's a horse race and anything can happen.

In his best race, Tiago ran 1 1/8 in 1:49 2/5. Assuming he can run another 3/8 in the time he ran the last 1/8 in that race, he runs a mile and half in 2:29 and a fraction. Using the same approach, Slew's Tizzy, who hasn't gone more than 1 1/16 doesn't look much better.

OTOH, Curlin can slow down in the last 5/16 versus his Preakness time and do 2:26 or close to it.

I know that's a simple analysis and I'm no expert, but I don't understand folks being excited about any horse's chances of beating Curlin with the exception of Hard Spun, and that's mild excitement. I will probably throw Prado in because of recurring Birdstone nightmares.

For what it's worth, Jay Cronley's picks on espn.com:

Curlin
Hard Spun
CP West
imawildandcrazyguy

Punch line from an old 'priest at the race track' joke: "Son, don't you know the difference between blessing a horse and giving it its last rites?"

[Scav]

Pimilco is a hell of alot different then Belmont from a track substance angle. Belmont is very sandy and deep where Pimilco can be extremely fast sometimes. Now, with it being a huge day, I am guessing the track will be sup'ed up to what a Pimilco is usually.

To me, time means absolutely nothing when it comes to handicapping, but others use it and are successful.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

He is an 'exotic' use according to TG.

I think Curlin has to move back and both Slew's Tizzy and Tiago are horses that are going to move forward. How forward, I don't know, but I think the value is there on them to invest in the notion of one of them freaking....

There is no way Slew's Tizzy moves forward here at 12 furlongs. This horse has started fast and decelerated the whole way in each of his past two races. Not the running style for the Belmont.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There is no way Slew's Tizzy moves forward here at 12 furlongs. This horse has started fast and decelerated the whole way in each of his past two races. Not the running style for the Belmont.

This picture is worth a thousand words. Can we say full of steam?