Hard Spun & Belmont Distance

[Antitrust32]

Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-

I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it. Danzig is more known for sprinters I thought. His DI is 2.67 and his CD is .66. According to http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm those numbers would make him most effective at 9 - 9 1/2 furlongs, which would compliment his run in the Derby. I dont understand how that makes him great for 12 f.

I'll go through the other horses-

Curlin DI 4.00 and CD 1.05 - bred for 6 - 7 furlongs

Rags to Riches - DI 3.00 CD .86 - bred for 7 to 9 furlongs

I'mawildncrazyguy - DI 6.00 and CD1.07 - bred for short sprints!

Tiago - DI 1.91 CD .31 - bred for 12 furlongs and beyond

Slews Tizzy - DI 2.00 CD . 67 - bred 9 - 12 furlongs

Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping

Time Squared - DI 3.25 CD .91 - bred for around a mile

Circular Quay - DI 2.08 CD .66 - bred 9-12 furlongs (probably wont run)


So if you are going off only pedigree, Tiago and Slews Tizzy are your guys (may want to keep them in your exotics). Granted horses dont run to their pedigree always (Curlin), but I wouldnt say Hard Spun is a lock at 12f.

I'll go through the past 10 Belmont winners and their pedigree for distance, maybe we can put things together.

Jazil - DI = 3.00 CD = 0.89 Bred for 8 - 9 furlongs

Afleet Alex - DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71 Bred for 11 furlongs

Birdstone - DI = 1.77 CD = 0.33 Bred for 12 and beyond

Empire Maker - DI = 1.88 CD = 0.42 bred for 12 and beyond

Sarava - DI = 4.50 CD = 1.00 Bred for sprints

Point Given - DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Bred for 9 furlongs or shorter

Commendable - DI = 5.00 CD = 1.07 Bred for quarter horse races

Lemon Drop Kid - DI = 2.62 CD = 0.79 Bred for 10 furlongs

Victory Gallop - DI = 3.27 CD = 0.81 Bred for a mile and 70

Touch Gold - DI = 1.82 CD = 0.46 Bred for 12 furlongs

So of the past 10 years, 1/2 of the horses were bred for 10 f or beyond.

I guess this means that pedigree really has nothing to do with the Belmont!