5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread

[pmacdaddy]

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

from DRF's "Closer Look" for Race 5 (Brian Mulligan):
Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample...

Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

[sumitas]

for a couple a bucks i'm takin a shot. ya may get lucky.
just perusing the brisnet prime power ratings per race
race 4 - pick em
race 5 - 5, 6 have a 9 pt edge over the field
race 6 - Justy, 9, looms 20 pts over the field
race 7 - pick em
race 8 - 4 has a 12 pt edge
race 9 - 9,10 have a 11 pt edge over the field
* a 10 or more pt edge is considered significant.

[Linny]

BRIS has Broad Brush at 14% T and 11% 1st T. Shug at 12% 1st T (48 race sample)
What appeals about her is the strong late pace figs in the debut and the most recent race. I'm tossing the innder tube debacle, assuming something went awry that day as she didn't run again for 4 mos, w/no training til March 16. She's a factor here.

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

This is a race that makes me want pull what's left of my hair out...A rail battle between a 290K War Chant yearling purchase and a 240K Maria Mon yearling purchase...Hushion 29%; McLaughlin 31%...throw in a 450k Gulch yearling purch from Rich Violette...Practically a million in horse flesh between the 3, and all of them firsters....

EDIT - Baletti has one start

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

This is a race that makes me want pull what's left of my hair out...A rail battle between a 290K War Chant yearling purchase and a 240K Maria Mon yearling purchase...Hushion 29%; McLaughlin 31%...throw in a 450k Gulch yearling purch from Rich Violette...Practically a million in horse flesh between the 3, and all of them firsters....

I noted significant gap in published works on My Michael in the 6th (Dec 20 - Apr 21). Not sure of significance.

[whodey17]

I am with Phil and most people; this is a very hard pick 6 sequence. If I was playing alone, I would prob put together a ticket that is around $288. However, we have 4 people willing to invest $300 each into this ticket. Turf racing isn't my best either and Belmont makes it much harder because of the size of their track.

A horse I really love is Whateverwilbwillb in the 7th. I like the first off layoff with this horse. She has a history of running big off a layoff. I also like Miss Poison in the 5th. The sire has good numbers for firsters and I think the horse will be ready to go.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by philcski

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

Impressionism 5/2 on Equibase ML.

[Spiggle24]

Very tough card.I believe the true single on the card is the 4 in the 8th.I live with the shieks or die with them & I do more livin'.I find Ms poison in the 5th very interesting.Look @ those good steady grass works then mediocre dirt works @ best now she races on the turf.Barclay Tagg kinda dirt to turf & KINGMAMBO too.Things that make you go HHHHMMMMM.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

my play barring scr

race 4 1 si o no
4 ricardo a
6 too risky
7 lasu d argent

race 5 4 street party
5 winsome ways

race 6 5 master of the house
9 justy

race 7 4 michale the great
1 and 1a
9 clasic marylin

race 8 7 calogne alt if scr 6 itsnotthe


race 9 9 astoria sweethart..
6 katnick 192 bucks good luck hooves

[sumitas]

race 4 - Too Risky 6
race 5 - Eulogize 6
race 6 - Justy 9
race 7 - Square Dancing 8
race 8 - Makderah 4
race 9 - Astoria Sweetheart 9

[Bigsmc]

R4
4 - Ricardo A
5 - Unigold

R5
4 - Street Party
5 - Winsome Ways
8 - Impressionism

R6
2 - Peace Mon (liked this one when he scratched out this weekend, may not look back)
6 - Baletti
9 - Justy

R7
1-1A Entry (Yikes)

R8 - Tough race...
3 - Hot Property
4 - Makderah
5 - Lady Renaissance

R9
6 - Katnik
9 - Astoria Sweetheart

2 x 3 x 3 x 1 x 3 x 2 = $108 x $2 = $216

GL

*Edited for scratches.*

[Rudeboyelvis]

don't have m/l's handy




R4) 1. 5 Unigold WON
2. 7. L'Oiseau d' Argent 3rd
A. 1 Si O No 2nd
B. 4 Ricardo A

R5) 1. 5 Winsome Ways WON
2. 8 Ipressionism 2nd
A. 4 Street Party
B. 6 Eulogize

R6) 1. 3 Intuition Magic 4th
2. 9 Justy WON
A. 2 Peace Mon 3rd
B. 8 Black Jack Blues

R7) 1. 4 Michelle the Great WON
2. 1 Flying Zee entries 2nd
A. 9 Classic Marilyn
B. 7 Fiddler's Pleasure

R8) 1. 4 Makderah WON
2. 5 Lady Renaissence
A. 7 Cologne
B. 3 Hot Proerty


R9) 1. 9 Astoria Sweetheart 3rd
2. 6 Katnik WON
A. 10 Clearly a Thrill SCRATCHED
B. 8 Kitty Kip 2nd


4,5
5
2,3,8,9
1,4,9
4
6,9
48 bets x $2 - 96 beans

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by philcski

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

I thought the exact same thing this morning when I looked at Impressionism as a single. She should be fine trying turf for the first time b/c she's bred to do so and going 8.5F, also has the breeding and strong connections. I might do it anyway, not sure. Right now I'm leaving towards Makderah as a solid single.

[unassailable08]

are yall gonna spend on the pick 6 for tomorrow ne chance someone with a small bankroll can hit it.