Bounce theory, Steve?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, my question is more general, and less Preakness-specific. I have not yet mastered these "sheets" rules as they relate to different age horses. So you're saying that when dealing with older horses, quicker turnaround time (2 weeks?) is more likely to negate a bounce than the "normal" sheets recommended 4-6 weeks spacing?

I'll answer for him. Yes.

Younger the horse the more likely that he will bounce. I think you really have to look at the situation and who is doing the entering. If a horse has been running between the 3-5 range and then alll of a sudden jumps to a 0, and then comes back in 14-20 days into a stakes race where others were pointing, and progressing well and you predict them to run a 2, I would bet the horse that I am predicting to run the two, and not the horse that just ran a zero.

The only two rules that I really live by when it comes to TG is the 3year old year to 4 year old year. If you think the horse has some talent, and is coming off the layoff, they improve immensely when they get that 60-90 day layoff in the winter from 3-4 years old. ESPECIALLY horses that looked rushed to the races or ones that have a stretch out pedigree's. Unbridled's horses were unbelievable when going from 3-4 and 4-5, they just got better with age. If a newly turned 4 year old matchs his top first out, he is an AUTOMATIC play for me next out unless it is a long layoff. AUTOMATIC. If they don't I then look at it more, but the 3 year old to 4 year old angle is EXTREMELY strong, and for good reason.