Betting The Preakness

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something?

Retire him. He's done enough.

[NTamm1215]

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

I agree...I suppose I should expand on what I said by adding that if a person felt like Curlin needed more experience heading into the Derby and was unlikely to win because of a lack of seasoning, hasn't that been rectified in a way.

Curlin ran a much different race in the Derby than he ever has before, he faced more adversity and was taken completely out of his game. In a sense he reminds me of a more talented Brother Derek, a handy winner over average fields who got a rough, wide trip in the Derby before closing late. However, I think Curlin is going to be the 3rd choice and I'm not really convinced Hard Spun is any better than him.

As far as talk of going 1 or 2 deep in the multi-race exotics, Curlin will be the first horse, if there are any at all, I use to help Street Sense.

NT

[SentToStud]

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

[Cajungator26]

I'll probably put some money across the board on C P West or something... I did the same thing last year with Hemingway's Key so I didn't totally lose my ass on the Preakness. I had tossed Bernardini (stupid) and played a straight exacta using Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint.

[Scurlogue Champ]

I am betting Curlin to win.

I think Street Sense has to go wide and lays down or hangs a bit.


(Now that CQ is in, I'll probably change my mind and bet him for some stupid reason)

But today, my pick is Curlin. By 3+ lengths.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

I think you're dead on, except for the bottom horses may be a little shorter than 40-1. TRUE odds are probably close to 40-1, they'll probably go off at closer to 20-1.

Am tempted to play KotRoxy in some sort of exotic. He's got the speed needed for this race. Stamina a big question; is 15-1 enough to warrant a win bet?? Does the fatman have an opinion?