Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You cannot say this often enough, as far as I'm concerned. I cringed at the initial post in the thread.

--Dunbar

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

Horses bounce off of every type of figure, Beyer, TG, Ragozin, whatever.

I'm not eliminating the possibility that they run huge races back-to-back. But considering Nafzger's Derby-or-bust strategy and considering how strenous Hard Spun's race in the Derby looked TO ME, I think they both are vulnerable to regression and hence, why I don't like them in the Preakness.

Hope that you didn't cringe reading that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

bouncing is just a word..it has no real meaning..a missed step; bad break,lost shoe..thats a real reason.or a tired /sore horse..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

Shouldn't this be easy to figure out? If they get good trips and come up empty, then I guess that would be the case.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Do you really think Street Sense has little foundation?

It's not about foundation for me, but rather that he was trained to shoot his best shot in the Derby. That's not to say that he won't run another big one in the Preakness, but like I said, with that and other factors in mind, I'm not crazy about betting him at odds-on.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I see your point and it's a fair one since Nafzger has always said he was pointing to the Derby. Trust me, there were two times to bet Street Sense, BC Juvy and the Derby. I did, so of course I am going to defend him. Will I bet him Saturday, nope. Not at that price, but I also think he's the best horse and I hope he wins so I can see a chance at a TC at Belmont.

I'm with you on that front. The last two years, Belmont Day (in terms of racing) has been pretty boring.

[Danzig]

but when IS the last time street sense ran a bad race? pre-juvy i would think.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I can't get pass the first three Derby finishers..."slam" the tri and "key" those three in pick 3's & 4's every which way.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

ateam, let's make a hypo bet. You pick some race in the future for Street Sense and Hard Spun in which you think they will be less likely to "bounce". How about the first race they run after the Belmont? (whether or not they run in the Belmont, they should be well-rested in whatever race they run after the Belmont.) I'll take each horse's Preakness performance. You give me odds of 6-5, since you think they will bounce in the Preakness, and I think it's a coin flip whether they will run better or worse in the Preakness than in any given future race. If you'd rather have the next race after the Preakness, even if it's the Belmont, that's fine, too. I'm willing to take the Preakness performances over any random future race. (We could even leave the picking of the future race open, with the stipulation that it has to be in 2007! Of course, I'm liable to be obnoxiously reminding you to pick your race every time one of them is entered!)

So-called "bounce" is always much easier to "see" after the fact, as in "he bounced". If you believe a horse will bounce, you will sooner or later be correct, in the sense that sooner or later the horse will toss in a sub-par performance for some reason.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

I agree with this completely. He is a deserving favorite in the Preakness, but hardly a lock. I have him between 2-1 and 5-2 in my line. He will of course go off lower than that.

--Dunbar