Pletcher ... Same Old Story

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he's come close a couple times, no doubt he'll figure it out.

He hasn't exactly come close---his two 2nd place finishers, Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat...were both beaten by lopsided margins....albeit both at longshot odds.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He hasn't exactly come close---his two 2nd place finishers, Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat...were both beaten by lopsided margins....albeit both at longshot odds.

well, he certainly was a lot closer last year with bluegrass cat than this year with cowtown cat!!

interesting tho that nafzger has had less lifetime starts in the derby than pletcher had this year alone, yet won it twice.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He hasn't exactly come close---his two 2nd place finishers, Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat...were both beaten by lopsided margins....albeit both at longshot odds.

To be fair, I've never felt as though the horses he has led over in this race were likely winners. Simply having a lot of horses in the race guarantees nothing as Zito proved a few years ago with some horses I thought were better than the group that Pletcher brought this year. He'll get his....I think his BC record is more a function of how he places horses throughout the year. I've always thought he puts horses in races they belong and where they win. So I wouldn't say he avoids the top competition but the BC is where you can't avoid the top horses and full fields.

[Cannon Shell]

Comparing Todd Pletcher to Tiger Woods or Arod is a bad analogy because those guys are singular athletes whose performances are mostly due to physical superiority. Pletcher is more of a general manager type. I would make the comparison to John Schuerholz, GM of the Atlanta Braves. Both Pletcher and Schuerholz are extremely successful and respected in their fields. Both have tremendous accomplishments, Pletchers money records, Saratoga titles, etc and Schuerholzs' Atlanta Braves winning 14 straight division title and several NL pennants. However the one thing that they also have in common is their horses/teams seemingly inability to win the BIG one. If you count TP's 2 breeders cup wins and the Braves 1 World Series titles as equivilents, the similarities are there.

I think Ruperts point, that Pletcher wins so much other than the TC races that it is not a problem is wrong. When you win so much on 361 days of the year but no so much on the 4 biggest days, questions will be and should be raised. Of course he is held to a higher standard. That in of itself is a sign of respect. To say that we should ignore his dismal record because he has not had the right horses is silly. No one in the history of horseracing has a better group of horses of which to choose from than TP. His stable is historically strong except for the days when the spotlight shines brightly. I'm sure he will win classic races, with the strength of his horses it will be almost impossible not to.

My problem was that he seems to be sending his horses in without proper preperation for the DERBY. What works for other races does not work for this race because it is so much different and harder than what these horses have ever faced before. He is training his Derby horses the same as if they were going into the Dwyer or Jim Dandy.

The guy is obviously a very good trainer. He is a great manager of people. He has put together a great program and it works for most of the year. But as long as the Derby eludes him the questions will linger. And they should.

[Danzig]

pletcher agreed that he had to win the big one, on the walk over before the derby. he knows it! no one is holding him to a higher standard than what he's holding himself to.

i guess everyone has the feeling he's been around a lot longer than he has, he's taken off so quickly, and has accomplished quite a lot. then you sit back and see that it's really only been a brief amount of time--you forget that he's still relatively young!

he'll win it, i have no doubt about that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

My problem was that he seems to be sending his horses in without proper preperation for the DERBY.

I agree with everything else you said---however, I don't understand what you mean by the above quote.

Besides Circular Quay, I felt his other four runners had all the proper preparation for the race.

There are some highly respected handicappers, who have a choice of the entire field, and fail to come up with the winner year-after-year in this race.

I don't believe a single post time favorite won this race in the entire decade of the 80's and 90's...zero-for-twenty. I don't believe Pletcher has ever had the favorite or second favorite in this race.

If he can get moderate horses like Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, and Impeachment to run in the top three---with the massive stable of top prospects he gets every year...it's only a matter of time.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with everything else you said---however, I don't understand what you mean by the above quote.

Besides Circular Quay, I felt his other four runners had all the proper preparation for the race.

There are some highly respected handicappers, who have a choice of the entire field, and fail to come up with the winner year-after-year in this race.

I don't believe a single post time favorite won this race in the entire decade of the 80's and 90's...zero-for-twenty. I don't believe Pletcher has ever had the favorite or second favorite in this race.

If he can get horses like Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, and Impeachment to run in the top three---with the massive stable of top prospects he gets every year...it's only a matter of time.

Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite as of January 1, 2006. I know that's usually useless as tits on a bull, but this year's Derby favorite on Jan 1 DID win, and I attribute a lot of that to the trainer's efforts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Link me to where Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite on Jan 1st 2006 at?

Stevie Wonderboy was still in training at that time, off of his record figure win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I felt Bluegrass was a highly overrated 2yo myself...but I can't ever remember him being a future book favorite, or a consensus #1 choice. He was something like 40/1 come raceday....albeit off of two mediocre races.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Link me to where Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite on Jan 1st 2006 at?

Stevie Wonderboy was still in training at that time, off of his record figure win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I felt Bluegrass was a highly overrated 2yo myself...but I can't ever remember him being a future book favorite, or a consensus #1 choice. He was something like 40/1 come raceday....albeit off of two mediocre races.

In Vegas, he was the future book favorite as soon as Stevie W got hurt (I guess that was in the first Cal race of the year for 3YO's, so not TECHNICALLY Jan 1.) About 10-1ish at the time.

(actually he ran 3 times at 3, won the Sam Davis with about a 103 Beyer, 2nd in the Tampa Derby with a 104, and bombed as the favorite in the Blue Grass on the ridiculous old Keeneland surface.)

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with everything else you said---however, I don't understand what you mean by the above quote.

Besides Circular Quay, I felt his other four runners had all the proper preparation for the race.

I believe that he is too soft on them especially considering 4 of them were training on polytrack. Regardless of the talent level, I have yet to see a Derby winner trained as lightly as his horses were this year. I have no information on the physical status of the horses coming into the race but Scat Daddy and CQ were trained very lightly.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I believe that he is too soft on them especially considering 4 of them were training on polytrack. Regardless of the talent level, I have yet to see a Derby winner trained as lightly as his horses were this year. I have no information on the physical status of the horses coming into the race but Scat Daddy and CQ were trained very lightly.

OK, I thought you meant from a racing standpoint and not a workout standpoint.

Wouldn't Curlin strike you as a horse who was majorly undertrained coming into the race? I realize his trainer got him after a wire-to-wire 7 furlong maiden score. I saw tape of his final two works leading into the Derby, and from what I understand, he has pretty much been restrained throughout in every workout he's had for Assmussen.

Perhaps initally fearing that Curlin wouldn't rate, and might not out see out 10 furlongs, led to him being trained that way?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

OK, I thought you meant from a racing standpoint and not a workout standpoint.

Wouldn't Curlin strike you as a horse who was majorly undertrained coming into the race? I realize his trainer got him after a wire-to-wire 7 furlong maiden score. I saw tape of his final two works leading into the Derby, and from what I understand, he has pretty much been restrained throughout in every workout he's had for Assmussen.

Perhaps initally fearing that Curlin wouldn't rate, and might not out see out 10 furlongs, led to him being trained that way?

tougher call because he was behind the 8 ball with a horse who got into the game so late. However he did race just 3 weeks prior.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Great post Chuck.

I second that, and it's EXACTLY what I've been trying to substantiate all along!!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I know you were, but I'm kissing Chuck's a ss tonight. You're tomorrow.

I'll be patient, those holding degrees from Tits McGee Junior College of Beauticians don't get much ass kissing.

He is a young man.
He will win a Derby.
He will win another Derby.
All this will go away.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pgardn

He is a young man.
He will win a Derby.
He will win another Derby.
All this will go away.

Not if he keeps trying to do things "his way".

Originally Posted by pgardn

He is a young man.
He will win a Derby.
He will win another Derby.
All this will go away.


Not if he keeps trying to do things "his way".

I would of course be willing to make a future wager on this. But I just dont know how long it will take. If Pletcher keeps getting the horses he does. I think the probability is very high that he does what I posted. Therefore I would wager on it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I would of course be willing to make a future wager on this. But I just dont know how long it will take. If Pletcher keeps getting the horses he does. I think the probability is very high that he does what I posted. Therefore I would wager on it.

In England, they'll give you a line. Some guy bet he would live to 90 and they gave him action.