5/5 Churchill Downs picks

[golfer]

Today is the day we've all been waiting for . Obviously handicapping for wet track, also can't ignore potential rail/non-rail bias...will adjust if it changes,

Race 1: #2 Ginger Punch, this horse towers over this field, has a great wet fig, ML stinks, but should not lose...#5 Leo's Pegasus is next fastest, has good CD wet fig 2 back...#6 Primetime Princess, circle back pattern, last was a good wet race at OP..#4 Presidential Date, only wet race stunk, but that was her 3rd career start, may hit board at a price.

Race 2: 2 year old maidens, nothing but breeding to go on (not my specialty), will tread very lightly.. #5 Woodway, Pletcher 1ster?

Race 3: #8 Cute Cakes, debut was sneaky fast on poly, may handle wet track...#9 Royal Diva, ran OK debut closing at OP, can improve...#1 Marina Ballerina and #2 Inside Passage, both coming off solid turf races, not wet dirt? #4 Sarah Supreme, ML favorite and giving weight, solid but not a stand out.

Race 4: #8 Next Adventure, solid forward moving line, nice wet race at FG...#2 Consecration, highweight for Shug, coming off big top on poly 2 weeks ago, may react...#5 Northern Duke, Pletcher, 1st 2 at three were solid, may continue improvement..
#7 Great Discovery, has both a good and horrible wet figure, which way today?..#6 Lumberjack Cat, #11 Mallabar and #12 Cya Later Bert, can all be used at a price.

Race 5: The Stakes races begin (also the pick 6).. different race with Half Ours and Wanderin Boy running yesterday...#4 Ah Day, loved him a month ago at Aqu, broke poorly and didn't do much running, at least that shouldn't have taken much out of him, also loves the wet track, sticking with him...#5 Cougar Cat has a big slop figure last year at Louisiana Downs, 2nd off the layoff today, big ML odds...#7 Saint Anddan is solid... look for both #6 Istan and #9 Junior College to react to big recent efforts.

Race 6: 1st Turf race of the day (handicapping for soft), very evenly matched race, #4 Price Tag, Frankel, making 3rd US start (2nd off the layoff), ran well on wet turf in Europe...#5 Quite a Bride, also 2nd off the layoff, figures fit here... #1 Lady of Venice, Biancone, comes back quickly, but wouldn't surprise..#6 Magnificent Song, Pletcher off 6 month layoff???

Race 7: wide open race, #3 Silverinyourpocket, ran 2 good ones at GP, then 2 not as good on poly, should improve back on dirt...#7 Total is classic "O-2-X", has 2 months since the X, can improve...#10 Tessa Blue, and #11 Suaveness both dangerous longshots...#4 Appealing Zophie, obviously dangerous, although last was big bounce, who knows here?

Race 8: another tough one, could go in many directions.. what to do with #1 Pussycat Doll, extremely spacey line, 2nd off the layoff (last year ran poorly 1st out, then well at CD, this year ran great 1st out, now 3 months later??). #8 Wildcat Bettie B, 2nd off the layoff, shows 2 solid wet track races..#4 Leah's Secret and #7 Hysterical Lady, both fast enough to win...#9 Sweet Fervor is coming off huge top, dangerous if she doesn't react..same for #2 Shaggy Mane, although I won't be betting this one.

Race 9: back to the turf, and possibly the BEST BET of the Day: #6 Einstein, last 2 have been HUGE, repeat runs away with this...#1 Brilliant, shows a big fig 3 back on soft turf, dangerous at a price...#4 Danzon, ran a good one 2 weeks ago for Biancone, should like it soft... favorites #2 Icy Atlantic, solid but unspectacular and #5 Better Talk Now, 1st start off the layoff at age 8, does like soft turf, and usually runs well fresh (but not putting him in top spot).#7 Sky Conqueror, has big soft turf fig last year at Woodbine, 2nd off the layoff today.

Race 10: KENTUCKY DERBY!! #12 NoBizLikeShoBiz, has been incredibly consistent (5 out of 6 lifetime races have been TG 2.5's)..has to either break thru or regress today. The Wood may have been better than it appeared! Hunch play.. #7 Street Sense is the logical choice, best if NoBiz doesn't run.. using #'s 3 Zanjero, #8 Hard Spun, #16 Circular Quay, #18 Any Given Saturday underneath... Don't like Cowtown Cat, Sam P or Dominican.. not so sure about Liquidity?

Race 11: yes, there is a race 11 (and 12)..whichever half of the Romans entry (#1 and #1A) runs should win, even better if both go! #7 Portobello Road may improve...

Race 12: hopefully we'll still be around for this, tough one to close the day...#8 Superb Ravi's last 2 stand out in here, unfortunately they were on the dirt, turf is a big ? the rest are extemely evenly matched, look for a price. Neither favorite, Praia di pipa or Beautiful Danielle stands out on figs, #1 Miss Laken, ran a big one on soft turf last year at AP, #3 Legislady ran 2 good ones on FG turf before his last 2 not as good on poly..#5 Louve Des Reves, Biancone's European layoff horse is dangerous.

As always, Great Luck to ALL!!