Hard Spun's Condition.......Fit Or Fatigued

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

Okay, I buy some of your arguments, but judging Hard Spun's performance in the Lanes End based on what Sedgefield did in a TURF race the next time out in which he was running on 12 days rest and hung like a cheap suit is stretching it. How about the fact that Dominican ran in the race prior, and blitzed that field, yet still ran 3-4 lengths slower than Hard Spun did?

I have to believe the Lanes End was legit. He was the only Derby contender to run a :23 1st quarter and a sub :38 final 3. Plenty of these horses can do one or the other, but not both.

I'm not so much basing my opinion on what Sedgefield did after the lanes end, although that wasn't encouraging because he had been previously much better on turf. And if I just look at the Lanes End then HS looks great, but there is still the other stuff that bothers me.

My main point with Sedgefield is that his figures jumped up so much in the Lanes End from his prior races. I am suspicious when a race brings back higher figures for everyone.

Dominican did not run the race that day that Hard Spun did, thats for sure. To his credit though it was his first start of the year after the equipment change and being off 4 months. When he came back in the BG he showed that he can kick home better than several of the top horses including Street Sense, although the way the race was run obscured any hope of finding out how fast he could have run, and the fact that it was on poly obscures what his dirt form might be like. Also the way I saw him gracefully veering out to avoid trouble without losing any momentum makes me think he has the agility to overcome obstacles in the derby.

I think Dominican might be sitting on a huge effort, and the price will be nice because of the obscured form that I mentioned, which is why I was touting him to be at least on the board. With Dominicans bad draw however i've lowered my expectations for him a bit.

Larry Jones took Hard Spun out to graze on Tuesday and Hard Spun was very lively. He refused to graze in a calm manner. Larry Jones was quoted saying "maybe we should have worked him more yesterday!"

I think this horse has tons of speed built up that he is ready to get out. He is my top pick.

I don't think that you can take into account what a jockey and trainer say a week before the biggest race of your life. I mean wouldn't you want your secret weapons kept under your belt until the big dance?

Originally Posted by AndieNicW

Larry Jones took Hard Spun out to graze on Tuesday and Hard Spun was very lively. He refused to graze in a calm manner. Larry Jones was quoted saying "maybe we should have worked him more yesterday!"

I think this horse has tons of speed built up that he is ready to get out. He is my top pick.

I don't think that you can take into account what a jockey and trainer say a week before the biggest race of your life. I mean wouldn't you want your secret weapons kept under your belt until the big dance?

Well you've sold me. I'm putting $25,000 across on him.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Well you've sold me. I'm putting $25,000 across on him.

Good...glad to be of help.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not so much basing my opinion on what Sedgefield did after the lanes end, although that wasn't encouraging because he had been previously much better on turf. And if I just look at the Lanes End then HS looks great, but there is still the other stuff that bothers me.

My main point with Sedgefield is that his figures jumped up so much in the Lanes End from his prior races. I am suspicious when a race brings back higher figures for everyone.

Dominican did not run the race that day that Hard Spun did, thats for sure. To his credit though it was his first start of the year after the equipment change and being off 4 months. When he came back in the BG he showed that he can kick home better than several of the top horses including Street Sense, although the way the race was run obscured any hope of finding out how fast he could have run, and the fact that it was on poly obscures what his dirt form might be like. Also the way I saw him gracefully veering out to avoid trouble without losing any momentum makes me think he has the agility to overcome obstacles in the derby.

I think Dominican might be sitting on a huge effort, and the price will be nice because of the obscured form that I mentioned, which is why I was touting him to be at least on the board. With Dominicans bad draw however i've lowered my expectations for him a bit.

I also think Dominican may be sitting on a big effort, the bad draw is obviously a concern but his style isn't as much a deterrent from out there. I like his chances to hit the board at a square price.

The "ultimate equipment change" is something more trainers/owners need to consider. It has turned this guy from a talented but unmanageable colt (see the KYJC) to a "graceful" (a very good description) runner. Unfortunately for the game, the goolies are the value in today's society...

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by philcski

I also think Dominican may be sitting on a big effort, the bad draw is obviously a concern but his style isn't as much a deterrent from out there. I like his chances to hit the board at a square price.

The "ultimate equipment change" is something more trainers/owners need to consider. It has turned this guy from a talented but unmanageable colt (see the KYJC) to a "graceful" (a very good description) runner. Unfortunately for the game, the goolies are the value in today's society...

That was 'unmanageable ridgling,' one testicle not descended, deemed to have been causing abdominal discomfort. Sometimes they leave the descended one, but with this one they took both.