Is "Liking the Surface" At Churchill Overrated?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

One of the reasons that I like Street Sense, Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday so much in the Derby is that all are proven over the Churchill strip. But as I look back at past Derby winners, it seems that you have to go back to Lil E Tee to find a Derby winner that had won a race prior to the Derby at Churchill. Am I putting too much stock into the fact that a horse is proven to "like the surface" at Churchill?

I think it's somewhat overrated in that just because a horse won a race over the track as 2-year-old doesn't mean he's going to run well over it in the Derby. It becomes almost a totally different track on Derby day. However, if you have a horse like Street Sense, who trains at Churchill, whose trainer is based at Churchill, whose rider knows the track inside and out and will be riding there all week before the Derby, then I think that certainly counts for something.