Another Impressive "Street Sense" Work

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A bottom level claimer, at the same distance, set faster fractions earlier on in the card--and still went wire-to-wire.

AND, furthermore, that same bottom level claimer who went wire-to-wire, had never shown any hint of serious speed at any time in his career.

If you look at the naked fractions, I can see how you can be misled into thinking that there was a decent early pace in that race---but if you look at the other route races on that card---and the form of those horses setting those paces---I don't think anyone could argue with how slow that pace was.

Using naked fractions is every bit as faulty as using naked final times...you have to take into account how other horses on that card perform.

We disagree then, to me that race exposed a lack of versatility on Hard Spuns part. The points about being taken in hand, being wide, and against the bias to me don't add up to the clunker he threw in there. I mean that race did not not exactly represent a who's who of the crop.

He is still a puzzle for me because while I was so unimpressed with his Southwest, his comeback in the LanesEnd I thought was an exceptional effort.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.

It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.

Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.

I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.

To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.

If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.

It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.

Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.

I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.

To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.

If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.

You totally lost me with Cobalt Blue. I don't see any similarity to Hard Spuns Southwest.

I didn't say Hard Spun got a good trip, but I certainly don't categorize it as the worst possible trip.

I also didn't say that he was a massive fraud, in act I've never referred to any horse as a fraud. I did say that I thought the race exposed a lack a versatility.

But what do I know, I'm just one of those people that doesn't do any work and looks at a race and says "WOW!"

[The Bid]

Tberg was sick in the Rebel

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Tberg was sick in the Rebel

Perhaps---he will be beaten double digits in the Derby.

The Tesio winner, that won under a Ramon Dominguez hand ride last weekend, was also soundly beaten in the Rebel

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You totally lost me with Cobalt Blue. I don't see any similarity to Hard Spuns Southwest.

I didn't say Hard Spun got a good trip, but I certainly don't categorize it as the worst possible trip.

I also didn't say that he was a massive fraud, in act I've never referred to any horse as a fraud. I did say that I thought the race exposed a lack a versatility.

But what do I know, I'm just one of those people that doesn't do any work and looks at a race and says "WOW!"

Cobalt Blue was also taken back off a slow pace, while racing wide, against the grain of an inside-speed track. Same thing as Hard Spun in the Southwest.

I know you didn't say he was a fraud---I was just saying what I would have said---had I seen footage of the race, and had not been aware of all the details I mentioned.

As for your final sentance--like I said, we seem to view both pace handicapping and trip handicapping very differently. I didn't mean that as a put-down...but you seem to have taken it as one.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Cobalt Blue was also taken back off a slow pace, while racing wide, against the grain of an inside-speed track. Same thing as Hard Spun in the Southwest.

So you feel Cobalt Blue threw in the towel and gave up 13 lengths in the stretch solely because of the trip and inside bias? If so we really do see races differently. I mean he was passed by horses that raced as wide or wider and were twice as far off the pace.

The fact that Cobalt Blue was a few lengths behind the slow pace, and was not on the inside path, might have explained why he couldn't catch Cowtown Cat that day, but it doesn't explain his rapid fade in the stretch. He was never more than a couple lengths behind the slow pace and wasn't all that wide either. I suspect that his poor performance had much more to do with the fact that he simply may not be as good as his recent SA form might suggest, or perhaps the horse was not really ready for the race, being pushed too fast, perhaps he doesn't ship well, perhaps the absensce of Bute, etc.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I said in a prior post about Cobalt Blue's performance "the most hardened students of trip handicapping will tell you his race was every bit as good as his stake win at SA last time out."

In the SA Stake race, he was basically allowed to walk on an uncontested lead, through very soft early fractions. He went from the trip of a lifetime, to, for a horse with his style, the trip from hell.

In both Hard Spun's Southwest and CB's race---you had a lightly raced speed horse, who's connections came into the race with the plan of taking back and rating from off the pace for the first time. Both horses found themselves off the pace, and racing wide, over strongly inside-speed tracks.

IMO, it's a recipe for a career worst performance. I have no problem if you don't agree with that--and I bet you surely are in the strong majority.

In Hard Spun's case, I predicted minutes before the race, albeit on another board, that he would surely lose that race. And when he did lose the race, I strongly defended his performance before he came back and proved an easy winner in the Lane's End.

I only say that, because I don't want to sound like I bet him and it's all just a case of sour grapes.

An academic question now, but: Why did they run CObalt Blue at HAW anyhow? Someone brought up that pt. at the time of the race and the answer was not really satisfactory. In retrospect; he ran in 15 degree weaterh with a windchill when he could have been back in sunny Calif, running against, well KingoRox; Notional etc.