Graded Earnings: Is there an alternative?

[whodey17]

I just picked some horses from this year 3 year old crop and applied my pts system. Again, this would change if my pts system was in place. Anyway...

Scat Daddy - 70
Circular Quay - 60
Stormello - 57
No Biz - 52
Street Sense - 48
Cowtown Cat - 32
Teuf - 27
Curlin - 22
Storm In May - 22
Sightseeing - 21
Tiago - 16

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by whodey17

I just picked some horses from this year 3 year old crop and applied my pts system. Again, this would change if my pts system was in place. Anyway...

Scat Daddy - 70
Circular Quay - 60
Stormello - 57
No Biz - 52
Street Sense - 48
Cowtown Cat - 32
Teuf - 27
Curlin - 22
Storm In May - 22
Sightseeing - 21
Tiago - 16

Clearly no system is perfect, but your system treats, for example, winning the G2 Hutcheson and the G2 Arkansas Derby as equals. That to me, just doesn't make sense. A horse that wins a 9f G2 in April deserves more "credit" than a horse that wins a 7.5 furlong race in March. Under the current system that horse gets that "credit" because the Arkansas Derby is a million dollar race while the Hutcheson is a $150,000 race. I think the current system works better than the system you propose because the 9f April preps - the ones which are probably the best indicators of who "belongs" in the Derby because of the distance and timing of the races - also happen to be the 3yo races with the largest purses.
Your system seems to treat the Kentucky Derby as a 3yo Hall of Fame, and that getting into the race should be some sort of lifetime achievement award for consistent performance. Admirable sentiment to be sure, but I would rather see horses that have the best chance of actually winnng the race included. I think the current system ensures that to a higher degree than your points system.

[Linny]

With rare exception, I think that the right horses generally get in. It is no one's responsibilty but the trainer's to assure enough earnings.

That said, how about a point system for graded earnings with 3yo races being worth 1.5 x any 2yo earnings and sprints being valued at 1/2 those of routes.
The concern I see with my own idea is that races like the Derby require some of those "sprinter-miler" types for the benefit of the pace. Teurflesberg keeps coming up on this thread and while I like the colt, I think he has no shot in the Derby. Why do I still think he should run? If the owners want to and he's eligible, he should run. We need him for some pace and his connections have done what is required to get there. If he "keeps out" a horse that someone deems "more worthy," the fault is with the excluded horse's connections for not getting him there. Either the horse was not good enough to get the $$$ or they tried to use 1 graded race and had back luck or something.

Part of the appeal of the Derby is that anything can happen. Most people would have said Giacomo shouldn't have even been in the gate, yet he won. As for "flukey" races, you cannot make any judgement about whether a race was a fluke until horses start to run back. Charismatic was considered a fluke until he won the Preakness. War Emblem was a fluke until he followed up with the Preakness and Haskell.

[SniperSB23]

I've posted this before but I think it is relevant here. I think this system would work very well, it may need a little tweaking but overall it would be just fine. It does benefit you to run in a lot of races but at the same time would make sure the best horses get in with a good finish in a major prep:

Race - Points
4/30 THE SNOW CHIEF (HOLLYWOOD PARK) 5-3-1
4/29 WITHERS STAKES (AQUEDUCT PARK) 5-3-1
4/29 UNBRIDLED STAKES (CALDER RACE COURSE) 3-2-1
4/29 DERBY TRIAL (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 5-3-1
4/22 FEDERICO TESIO STAKES (PIMLICO RACE COURSE) 5-3-1
4/22 COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES (KEENELAND) 10-8-6-4-2
4/15 TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES (KEENELAND) 20-16-12-8-4
4/15 THE NORTHERN SPUR BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (OAKLAWN PARK) 3-2-1
4/15 ARKANSAS DERBY (OAKLAWN PARK) 20-16-12-8-4
4/9 LAFAYETTE STAKES (KEENELAND) 3-2-1
4/8 WOOD MEMORIAL (AQUEDUCT PARK) 20-16-12-8-4
4/8 SANTA ANITA DERBY (SANTA ANITA PARK) 20-16-12-8-4
4/8 ILLINOIS DERBY (HAWTHORNE RACE COURSE) 10-8-6-4-2
4/8 BAY SHORE STAKES (AQUEDUCT PARK) 3-2-1
4/1 WINSTAR DERBY (SUNLAND PARK) 5-3-1
4/1 FLORIDA DERBY (GULFSTREAM PARK) 20-16-12-8-4
3/25 RUSHAWAY STAKES (TURFWAY PARK) 5-3-1
3/25 LANE'S END STAKES (TURFWAY PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
3/18 THE TAMPA BAY DERBY (TAMPA BAY DOWNS) 10-8-6-4-2
3/18 THE SAN FELIPE (SANTA ANITA PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
3/18 THE REBEL STAKES (OAKLAWN PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
3/18 GOTHAM (AQUEDUCT PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
3/11 CALIFORNIA DERBY (GOLDEN GATE FIELDS) 7-5-3-1
3/4 SWALE STAKES (GULFSTREAM PARK) 3-2-1
3/4 SANTA CATALINA STAKES (SANTA ANITA PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
3/4 JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES (TURFWAY PARK) 5-3-1
3/4 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES (GULFSTREAM PARK) 10-8-6-4-2
2/26 BORDERLAND DERBY (SUNLAND PARK) 5-3-1
2/25 THE SOUTHWEST STAKES (OAKLAWN PARK) 7-5-3-1
2/18 THE SAM F. DAVIS STAKES (TAMPA BAY DOWNS) 7-5-3-1
2/12 SAN VICENTE STAKES (SANTA ANITA PARK) 7-5-3-1
2/4 SHAM STAKES (SANTA ANITA PARK) 7-5-3-1
2/4 HUTCHESON STAKES (GULFSTREAM PARK) 3-2-1
2/4 HOLY BULL STAKES (GULFSTREAM PARK) 7-5-3-1
1/29 EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (BAY MEADOWS) 5-3-1
1/21 CRESCENT CITY DERBY (FAIR GROUNDS AT LOUISIANA DOWNS) 3-2-1
1/14 SAN RAFAEL STAKES (SANTA ANITA PARK) 5-3-1
1/14 RISEN STAR STAKES (FAIR GROUNDS AT LOUISIANA DOWNS) 5-3-1
1/7 AVENTURA STAKES (GULFSTREAM PARK) 5-3-1
12/9 DELTA JACKPOT (DELTA DOWNS) 5-3-1
11/25 REMSEN STAKES (AQUEDUCT PARK) 5-3-1
11/25 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 5-3-1
11/4 BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 10-8-6-4-2
11/3 NASHUA STAKES (AQUEDUCT PARK) 5-3-1
10/29 IROQUOIS STAKES (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 5-3-1
10/8 NORFOLK BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA) 7-5-3-1
10/7 LANE'S END BREEDERS' FUTURITY (KEENELAND) 7-5-3-1
10/14 CHAMPAGNE STAKES (BELMONT PARK) 7-5-3-1
9/30 KENTUCKY CUP JUVENILE STAKES (TURFWAY PARK) 5-3-1
9/23 FUTURITY STAKES (BELMONT PARK) 5-3-1
9/10 ARLINGTON-WASHINGTON BREEDERS' CUP FUTURITY (ARLINGTON PARK) 5-3-1
9/6 DEL MAR FUTURITY (DEL MAR) 7-5-3-1
9/4 SAPLING STAKES (MONMOUTH PARK) 3-2-1
9/4 LAFAYETTE STAKES (EVANGELINE DOWNS) 3-2-1
9/4 I'M SMOKIN STAKES (DEL MAR) 3-2-1
9/4 HOPEFUL (SARATOGA RACE COURSE) 7-5-3-1
8/17 SARATOGA SPECIAL BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (SARATOGA RACE COURSE) 5-3-1
8/13 BEST PAL STAKES (DEL MAR) 5-3-1
7/27 SANFORD STAKES (SARATOGA RACE COURSE) 5-3-1
7/8 BASHFORD MANOR STAKES (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 3-2-1
7/4 TREMONT (BELMONT PARK) 3-2-1
7/4 HOLLYWOOD JUVENILE CHAMPIONSHIP (HOLLYWOOD PARK) 3-2-1
5/4 KENTUCKY BREEDERS' CUP (CHURCHILL DOWNS) 3-2-1

[whodey17]

I like that Sniper. I really think we should value the horses who race as well as trying to find a way to include the late bloomers. I think we could come up with a better way of doing this than relying soley on Graded Earnings.