'paceQuality' figs: Street Sense (last 4); Bluegrass S. (w/Trakus)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

(click and open full screen)

Here are my figures for Street Sense's last four races. Also included here is an in-depth look at the Bluegrass Stakes using Trakus Data with my figures.

Pace Quality or pQ attempts to measure the pace of the primary contenders in a race at the pace call. This can be important in identifying a true race shape. pQ2 measures the pace of the primary contenders from the pace call to the the finish. The Bluegrass was a visually obvious example of a race that "came home fast". Figures are listed in feet/second velocity.


- new to this forum any questions or comments welcome

Great information BF, a little indepth for someone like me who likes to fire at the windows but to each is own. Hopefully they let you back into the USA soon

[Bobby Fischer]

lol @ the chess comments.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

lol @ the chess comments.

because you're handle was so obscure?

you know you named yourself after a delusional anti-semite right? i only ask because i have always been so careful what other's might think of my name.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

because you're handle was so obscure?

you know you named yourself after a delusional anti-semite right? i only ask because i have always been so careful what other's might think of my name.

lol.
I like the name. I like the level the guy reached at his profession. Nothing whatsover to do with anti-semitism (or any other statements/beliefs the man has made).
I have no special interest in chess other than that it is a fine game.

[Bobby Fischer]

a little bit of analysis of the figs:

Circular Quay has not in the last 4 races(possibly never) run a faster pQ2 than his 6 furlong pace velocity. IMO he would have(and also likely won) in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland had he not been trapped on the turn. The Risen Star was also upset by the spill. IMO CQ would have needed to come on much more than he appeared likely before the incident to run a faster Risen Star pQ2.

Street Sense on the other hand has outrun his pQ TWICE, and maybe most importantly- also came close to doing so in the Tampa Derby.

This is interesting look at use of energy by two horses who are commonly lumped together as both being deep closers. Does it indicate a possible stamina/finishing edge for street sense? or did he simply have a great trip in the BC, and a polytrack finish in the Bluegrass? I think there is some (small?) positive edge to Street Sense here.

[Thunder Gulch]

Guys, the first thing you need to do evaluating the Derby prep figures - and poly races in general- is get out a big fat black sharpie and draw a line through them. Then you can move on and make some relevant observations.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

IMO CQ would have needed to come on much more than he appeared likely before the incident to run a faster Risen Star pQ2.

This is kind of a clumsy sentence. Are you saying; "Even w/o the spill, CQ was not likely win the Risen star?"

I would tend to differ how far back from notional was he,4-5 lenghts? His final time was messed up but wasnt that because of the spill? I know his final quarter time was not good but look at the final 1/8.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by easy goer

This is kind of a clumsy sentence. Are you saying; "Even w/o the spill, CQ was not likely win the Risen star?"

I would tend to differ how far back from notional was he,4-5 lenghts? His final time was messed up but wasnt that because of the spill? I know his final quarter time was not good but look at the final 1/8.

Agreed.
I think Circular Quay may well have won the Risen Star without the spill.

Beyond winning-
Comparing the pQ and pQ2 figures

Circular Quay would have really had to catch fire and win by open lengths in order for his Risen Star pQ2 velocity to have been faster than his Risen Star pQ1 velocity.

Circular Quay has not had pQ2 > pQ1 in his last 4 races (likely never).
Street Sense has done it twice in the last four.

[Bobby Fischer]

Great Hunter



more Contenders to come...
Also have been working with some formulas to rank performance and also to rank stamina. Will be included in some final reports along with the horses rated in various categories.