Performance Figures for top preps

Originally Posted by somerfrost

All any speed figures will give you is the basis for a comparative analysis of different races at different tracks... .

But you started this thread out by suggesting that the Roman numbers were some sort of evidence that this years crop is "underperforming" vis a vis other crops.

But then you admit this only the first step in comparing this years crop to itself. Maybe it's useless in comparing year by year???

Which horse ran the -33 in the FL derby? Is that Barbaro? What was wrong with that race?

Who knows? some of these systems seem rather self fulfilling. The race where they broke a track record at TB comes back as a Beyer 102, so now the purpose of Beyer numbers is to compare other horses. So naturally if you are comparing vis a vis SS/AGS other horses have got to line up with 102. So only one other horse has run a 105....Does that really prove this crop is bad or is it self fulfilling?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But you started this thread out by suggesting that the Roman numbers were some sort of evidence that this years crop is "underperforming" vis a vis other crops.

But then you admit this only the first step in comparing this years crop to itself. Maybe it's useless in comparing year by year???

Which horse ran the -33 in the FL derby? Is that Barbaro? What was wrong with that race?

Who knows? some of these systems seem rather self fulfilling. The race where they broke a track record at TB comes back as a Beyer 102, so now the purpose of Beyer numbers is to compare other horses. So naturally if you are comparing vis a vis SS/AGS other horses have got to line up with 102. So only one other horse has run a 105....Does that really prove this crop is bad or is it self fulfilling?

Friends Lake in 2004 won the Fla Derby and was assigned a -33, I don't "admit" a damn thing, speed figures are what they are. What I said was that Roman's PF's support the claim of Beyer and others that this year's crop has earned slower speed figures than the past few years. Speed figures are a handicapping tool, part of what I use in handicapping a race...never claimed they were magic or some absolute. Computation questions should be posed to Dr Roman or Andy Beyer or the folks who generate the sheets...my only point is that I prefer PF's to Beyer figures and I use same as a handicapping tool. You may use whatever you wish...or not!

THe Friends Lake race I can understand, I think someone lost a rider early on in that one. okay.

Not asking for a computation question, just wondering why they are some evidence of how bad this years class is when they are not even giving you the whole picture on this years class....

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

THe Friends Lake race I can understand, I think someone lost a rider early on in that one. okay.

Not asking for a computation question, just wondering why they are some evidence of how bad this years class is when they are not even giving you the whole picture on this years class....

Your question answers itself....they are, as you say, "some evidence" but not the "whole picture". All I ever said was that the PF's support what others are saying...they are a piece of the "evidence" that this year's crop appears a bit slower in the preps...that alone is far from a determination of how this year's crop will perform in the TC. The interesting thing to me is that so many horses have run races with PF's within about 25 points...to me, this makes separating them very difficult.