Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

One horse that both Curlin and SS ran against was the closer Delightful Kiss. In both races, Curlin and SS fired their "A" game or at least close to it and DK seems to be a pretty reliable decent horse.

In the TB derby, DK lost by 6 1/4 lengths, although he ducked out quite a bit at the start, in Ark Dby, he lost by 11 1/2 lengths.

Perhaps more interesting, in the stretch runs of each race, he lost 2 3/4 lengths or so to Curlin, and he lost about 1 1/4 lengths to SS. The Tb Dby was 1/16 of a mile shorter and probably wind aided in the home stretch but one would guess that based on this, Curlin is certainly not overrated.

And King of the Roxy beat Storm in May by 11 3/4 lengths in the Hutchinson. I guess Curlin will be filling out the exacta behind him in the Derby.

[Danzig]

what, six degrees of delightful kiss??

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And King of the Roxy beat Storm in May by 11 3/4 lengths in the Hutchinson. I guess Curlin will be filling out the exacta behind him in the Derby.

It's well understood that there is a big difference between 7 fur. races and those longer distances we see in the derby preps. If you want to choose KoRox over Curlin at 7 fur. it might be a decent comparison but the only 7 1/2 fur. race for Curlin is the maiden he won, first time out by 12 3/4! So even then, you dont have a common opponent at 7 fur. and Curlin did pretty well his only go at one turn...

Moreover, the very idea of Beyer figs as I understand them is to be able to compare horses to one another, when they ship to other tracks or whatever. I maybe wrong about that, I only have a casual knowledge of them but I think that is the idea and a reasonable idea. Most people agree Beyer did something for the sport with his figs. even though they are not the be all and end all either. But you are not opposed to his idea are you?

One would think someone of your experience would see the distinction after all, dont experienced punters speak about such things as pace, pressure, ability to stretch out? Clearly comparing horses at difference distances is a recipe for disaster, just imagine comparing Roberto Clemente to Henry Aaron in a league where the fences are 400' from home plate (e.g. in the Caribean winter league)?

This stuff is rather obvious so I guess you just want to be a prick or else confuse other people.

As I stated previously, there are all sorts of comparisons that may be made, and one race is certainly not the be all and end all by any means. I tried to find a horse that was reasonable comparison, I tried to find distances that were reasonably the same distance, I tried to find a horse that was as highly regarded for the derby as Curlin, I tried to find a horse that seemed to fire about the same in each race, DK is a decent horse, he did decent in each race. I tried to point that there were some differences in the race e.g. trouble and wind. There is no perfect comparison and of course other data pts. would certainly be appreciated.

Perhaps you can try again with a more intelligent post. Instead of using a horse like KoRox that has not shot at getting 10f, you can find a horse that is highly regarded for the derby? That might be interesting.

[blackthroatedwind]

Considering how unintelligent I find comparing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby, two races run in very different manners, I hardly found my initial comparison unintelligent. Simply comparing how far one horse finished behind two different horses without taking into consideration the actual way the races were run is preposterous. That was my actual point.

That post by horseofcourse he just deleted made me laugh out loud. Thanks. I needed that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

That post by horseofcourse he just deleted made me laugh out loud. Thanks. I needed that.

Paraphrase, homie.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Paraphrase, homie.

He quoted my comparison of Lawyer Ron and Curlin and was breakin' my balls how Lawyer Ron wasn't a lightly raced horse.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He quoted my comparison of Lawyer Ron and Curlin and was breakin' my balls how Lawyer Ron wasn't a lightly raced horse.

as I said just poor reading comprehension...you said "like" a lightly raced Lawyer Ron...not "lightly raced" like Lawyer Ron. My bad, which is as I said why I deleted it.

[horseofcourse]

Curlin has run 3 preps this year which is pretty much as many as any other horse or more in some cases...other than Teuflesberg who has gone out 4 times, noone has run more than 3.

By the way pillow pants, I misunderstood your post then reread it and realized how stupid I was in my reply..which is why I deleted it.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Curlin has run 3 preps this year which is pretty much as many as any other horse or more in some cases...other than Teuflesberg who has gone out 4 times, noone has run more than 3.

By the way pillow pants, I misunderstood your post then reread it and realized how stupid I was in my reply..which is why I deleted it.

I know. Your reply was pretty tame to how I would reply if someone said Lawyer Ron was lightly raced.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.

The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

[horseofcourse]

What I like about Curlin is he was 4 or 5 lengths back at the 1/2 mile call in both races at Oaklawn around two turns. That tells me he won't be affected one bit by a lightning pace should that occur or a slow pace or whatever is thrown out there. I don't hold the lack of starts at 2 against him...as people have said it didn't hurt Bernardini in the Preakness. He seems to be a very handy horse for the most part. He may fold like a lawn chair in the Derby, and I have no idea who will win the race, but I think he's the best horse going in. I've seen nothing from any other contender any better than what he's shown this year.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas....By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

Another factor, in both races Curlin [edit: that should be Delightful Kiss] is described as making a mild or modest rally. But in OP he had to go wide, at TB I dont think he was very wide, prollly on the rail if memory serves...

Anyhow he lost ground around the turn so that may account for more beaten lengths. Still even with adjustment, how much difference can there be? the more you look at it, the more it seems Curlin is comparable to SS. At least in the sense of speed, psychologically who knows?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.

The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

You really liked that movie? I watched it so long ago, but it just seemed soooo depressing, reallly I wanted to yell at everyone to wise up and go out and make their lives better. I wouldn't have made a very good therapist.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am trying to watch " Leaving Las Vegas "...which is one of my all-time favorite movies.
The Hutchinson " example " was a joke. In the Tampa Bay Derby Delightful Kiss merely picked up a bunch of bad horses and Most Distinguished who probably would have been third if he hadn't actually tried to win ( which Delightful Kiss was never close enough to attempt to do ). In the Arkansas Derby the horses that ran 1-2-3 were also 1-2-3 early in the race thus the speeds never really came back. Considering the differences in how the races were run it is hardly surprising a mediocre clunk up horse like Delightful Kiss did not perform better in Arkansas.

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

again?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, I don't believe Curlin could have run faster than he did yesterday.

Hardly a bold statement. Didn't he go sub 12 for the last furlong? I think someone would have to be on crack to think he could have gone faster.

Well then why dont you tell us how differently the races were run? I have already pointed out some diferences in an effort to be fair, it is not like I am trying to sell people snake oil. I would welcome any further light you can shed.

See, I am confused right about now. You criticize my choice of races on the grounds they are different whereas you would have us believe KoRox is a valid comparison horse for a 10f derby. So which is it? Is the Hutcheson comparison a better one than the Ark/TB derby or were just blowing smoke up our ass?

If the two turn races are better comparison then perhaps you can shed more light on the distinctions?

I will go first and add a little more: it seems to me DK was running his own race in both cases, pace pressure probably did not compromise his final time by much. It also seems that SS was all out and Curlin was not. If anything Curlin might have increased his margin over DK. But since the original question had to do with Curlin being overrated I would think this would only help Curlin's case.

Also conditions must have been right for a track record in the TB derby but whatever they were they must have helped both DK and SS and AGS.

It's also possible that SS/ AGS final time was compromised by the intense stretch duel they waged. However they did set a track record (stakes record?) so how much could it have been? Perhaps you can shed some light on that issue. that might be a more constructive use of internet bandwidth rather than dropping vague hints that I am out of my mind.

Or perhaps you can find a better race that is a better comparison? Are there any races with common opponents?


SO which is it? Do you NOT think it's appropriate to compare similar horses in similar races?

Do you still feel the Hutch and CUrlin's maiden are a better races to compare?If so feel free to go on about that dont let me inhibit your style.